EDITORIAL

Not only new ones!

Next year the EU Commission will be putting forward a proposal for a directive setting national ceilings for the emissions of four air pollutants causing acidification and the formation of ozone. Certain interests are now trying to make this an excuse either for delaying

or at least watering down the plans for other measures to reduce emissions. One such is EURELECTRIC, an umbrella organization for electricity generators, which is pursuing the line that measures to lessen the emissions of air pollutants from existing plants should not be included in the discussions on a revision of the LCP directive.

Here one should note the essential difference between measures that are already in place and those that may be introduced in future. About the existing ones, represented for instance by the LCP directive, there seems to be fairly general agreement, even if views as to their environmental effects may differ a great deal. There tends to be more confusion, on the other hand, over what is likely to come, such as the NEC directive. There is uncertainty as to whether or when it will definitely be adopted in legislation, what exactly its legal obligations will be, and how well it is likely to be observed.

In the case of the LCP directive, which in its original form has had legal force since 1988, there is some passable recording of how it has been followed in practice, even if the supply of information from the member countries has not been all that it might have been. From what they have thus seen, the Commission and several of the member countries have come to the conclusion that the directive needs revising as indeed was foreseen at the time of its adoption. This directive relies mainly on the best available techniques for reducing emissions and their effects. Since techniques will however undergo development, and the knowledge of effects will improve in the course of time, it must be evident that a directive of this type will have to be revised at intervals, say, in five to ten years.

There are a number of reasons why steps should be taken to control emissions from existing plants. In the first place, those emissions will constitute far and away the greatest part of the total during the next ten or twenty years. They will definitely have to be reduced, if the aim of better air quality and reduced acidification is to be realized. Then, as an analysis made for the Commission has shown, it would actually be cost-effective for at least thirteen of the fifteen member countries to cut emissions from these existing plants. There can in fact be no doubt, even if the EU should sooner or later adopt the NEC directive, that it would still be necessary as well as cost-effective to do just that.

A revised LCP directive may also have the advantage that it could cause emissions to decline more rapidly than the NEC directive would, no matter whether the latter is adopted sooner or later. Damage to the environment and health would also fall away earlier, making in turn less cost for the community as well as bringing other gains, both in the short and the long term.

The form of the LCP directive, including as it does technical requirements not to mention the demand for greatly improved reporting that the Commissions proposal will bring will make monitoring easier and so make it possible to see how well the requirements of the directive are being followed. It could soon be discovered whether the directive was adequate for it purpose or not. This would not be the case with the NEC directive, which would only reveal the facts when it would be too late one or two years after the target date, 2010.

It should however be held in mind that a revised LCP directive will only cover a limited proportion of the reductions that will be needed for achievement of the national ceilings that are now announced very little indeed if the changes should be limited to new plants, but somewhat more if requirements for existing plants should also be included. The revision should therefore be regarded as one of several complementary measures intended to ensure that the emission ceilings will actually be adhered to, and that cost-effective technical measures to reduce emissions will be taken by the European Union.

Christer Ågren

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EMISSION CEILINGS

Checking acidification and ozone

Early in the new year the EU Commission will be presenting a proposal for a directive setting national emission ceilings for four air pollutants that cause acidification and the formation of ground-level ozone. These are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia. It will be the most important piece of legislation for attainment of the environmental targets for 2010, which are designed to reduce the damage from these two causes.

The concept for this new directive first surfaced in 1997, when the Commission put forward its strategy for dealing with acidification. There it confirmed that the long-term aim for the EU, in regard to acidification, as already laid down in the fifth EU plan of action for the environment of 1993, was that there should be no exceeding ever of critical loads and levels. The aim for air quality was said to be that all people should be effectively protected against recognized health risks from air pollution.

Since 1996 the Commission has been working on a similar strategy for reducing the concentrations of ground-level ozone, to be combined with a daughter directive for air quality standards involving this pollutant.

Since it turned out, after analyses had been made of the problems of acidification and ozone that would arise in both strategies, that the long-term aims would not be realizable without some delay, the Commission decided on a stepwise plan. What it called interim targets, to be achieved by 2010, were set in both cases the intention being to revert to the matter with further, deepened analyses in connection with the review of these strategies which is scheduled for 2004. The Commission will then also be evaluating the progress made by member countries in reducing emissions, as well as considering the need for further reductions. It may well make proposals at the same time for new targets, and for any revisions of its directives that might lead to reducing emissions still more.

As reported in Acid News 3/98, negotiations are now going on for a multi-effect and multi-pollutant protocol under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution. The basis here will be the critical-loads approach, and to ensure compatibility between this work and that of the Commission, close links have been established between the two bodies. They will be using the same methodology, and as far as possible the same data, and the same consultants for the computer modelling.

As a part of the procedure of working out a directive on emission ceilings for the four pollutants, the Commission has investigated, through IIASA, various targets and emission scenarios. These have been gone over by experts from the member countries, representatives of industry, and environmentalist organizations, and are included in a report.¹ The last time consultation took place was in Brussels on October 19 this year, when the Commission informed of the preliminary conclusions it had reached in regard to the overall aims it favoured, and what they would mean by way of emission reductions for the member countries.

Improvements everywhere
In essence the Commissions aims are intended to bring about an equal relative improvement everywhere in the EU, while at the same time ensuring extraordinary improvements in the worst affected areas. The aim of the general relative improvement is expressed in the form of gap closure towards the long-term target where there will be no exceeding of critical loads. The extraordinary improvements are to be achieved by adding absolute limits for exposure to pollutants to the gap-closure procedure.

So as not to let some lesser areas take on undue importance in the modelling work, a so-called compensation mechanism has been employed. This allows the gap-closure aim to be violated in some sub-areas, provided the resulting loss is balanced by extra improvements in other parts of the same country. The compensation mechanism has been applied in the cases both of acidification and ozone.

Environmental targets
Following a careful analysis of various scenarios, the Commission has put forward the main aims it wishes to see achieved by 2010:

• Acidification. The target is to be at least a 50-per-cent reduction in areas that are not protected against acidification, as from 1990. (Although the method for calculating gap closure in respect of acidification has been altered since the advent of the acidification strategy, the general target remains unchanged.)
• Health-affecting ozone. The target for gap closure is to bring down the exceeding of AOT60 by at least 67 per cent, again as from 1990. (AOT60 is used as a surrogate indicator for excess health-related exposure to ozone.) Furthermore there is to be an absolute ceiling for AOT60 of 2.9 ppm hours, which is to apply everywhere.
• Vegetation-affecting ozone. The gap-closure target is at least a 33-per-cent reduction of the amount by which the critical level for crops is exceeded (that level is an AOT40 of 3 ppm hours). The baseline is still 1990. There will also be an absolute ceiling of 10.0 ppm hours for AOT40.

Least-cost solution
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, which has been the Commissions consultant, has used its RAINS model to carry out a so-called joint optimization to find the most cost-effective way, for EU as a whole, for achieving these environmental aims. The emission reductions that will be required of individual member countries are set forth in Table 1, where they are called the NEC scenario. These can be compared with the changes that are already likely both as a result of current national and international commitments and of existing and impending EU legislation (according to REF, the reference scenario).

Table 2 shows the extra costs for the member countries of going over from the REF to the NEC scenario (taking the four pollutants in question as a bunch). These are estimates coming from the RAINS computer model, where only technical means for reducing emissions have been taken into account.

Costs overestimated
It is estimated that the total extra cost of reducing emissions in line with the NEC scenario will be 9.1 billion ecus a year in 2010. Background papers, presented by the Commission at the October meeting, indicate however that this is an overestimate a view that is also supported by the IIASA report. The reason is partly that only technical changes have been considered, no account having been taken of structural measures such as switching fuels from coal to gas, increasing energy efficiency, greater use of alternative energy sources, and changes in the transportation and agricultural sectors. Emissions could be reduced at much lower cost through some of these structural changes than by relying solely on technical end-of-pipe solutions.

Furthermore, a highly doubtful energy scenario has been used in the computer modelling. This would imply an increase in the EU emissions of carbon dioxide by about 8 per cent by 2010, in absolute disregard of the commitments made by the EU and its member countries under the Kyoto protocol, involving a reduction of 8 per cent in EU emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is the most important). A computer run simulating a low-CO₂ scenario that would roughly accord with the Kyoto agreement brought the extra cost down by more than 40 per cent.

Reducing acidification
The area of ecosystems where the depositions of acidifying air pollutants exceed the critical loads will be greatly diminished as a result of the Commissions proposals. As can be seen from Table 3, altogether 37 million hectares, or a quarter of the sensitive EU ecosystems, were being subjected to excess loading in 1990. Under the REF scenario the area would drop to 6.6 million hectares by 2010, and would shrink still more, to 4.3 million hectares, under NEC. That is for the EU as a whole. In the Netherlands almost a quarter of the countrys ecosystem area would still be affected. Otherwise the countries with the greatest remaining overloaded areas would be Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Great Britain.

Less ozone damage
Notable improvements for ozone, too, would accrue under the NEC scenario. The exposure estimates for population and vegetation that have been used by IIASA indicate that for population the excess exposure to ozone would be 76 per cent less than in was in 1990, and 40 per cent less than in the REF scenario. The exposure of vegetation in excess of the critical levels would be less than half of what it was in 1990, and almost 25 per cent less than it would be under the REF scenario. The number of days in which the 8-hour value of 60 ppb is exceeded in the worst affected parts of the EU, in Italy and northern France, would be more than halved from 50-60 days in 1990 to 20-25 in 2010 according to the NEC scenario. (The 8-hour value of 60 ppb serves as an indicator of deleterious effects on human health.)

Although no targets have been set for stopping eutrophication, improvements can nevertheless be expected as result of lower emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia. The area of sensitive ecosystems where critical loads are being exceeded is estimated to drop from 67 million hectares or 55 per cent of the total in 1990 to 41 million hectare (34 per cent) in 2010, if emissions of those pollutants should be cut in accordance with NEC scenario.

Benefits outweigh costs
The Commission also engaged another consultant, AEA Technology, to make an analysis of the quantifiable gains from reducing emissions in terms of money. Account was taken chiefly of the effects on human health (morbidity and mortality), on farm crops and modern buildings and materials. As reported in Acid News 2/98, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how to evaluate mortality. The problem lies in the division between acute and chronic effects, and also the value to be assigned to a lost life. Some prefer to consider the value of a statistical life (VOSL), others a valuation of life-years lost (VOLY). To be on the safe side, the consultants have done both.

Their calculations show quantifiable gains under the NEC scenario to amount to about 22 billion ecus a year in 2010, using VOLY, or 43 billion by VOSL. It should however be noted that a number of gains have not been included, such as less acidification of soil and water, less eutrophication, fewer effects on biological diversity, less long-term effect on forest productivity, and less damage to historical monuments.

Proposal coming soon
During the next few months the directive on ceilings for emissions will be a matter for internal negotiation within the Commission. A communication is expected by February or March next year. This will include three proposals, one being for the directive for ceilings on national emissions of SO₂, NOx, VOCs, and NH₃, another the strategy for ozone reduction, and the third a daughter directive giving air-quality standards for ozone. The next step will be for the European Parliament of make itself heard in these matters, followed by negotiations between the member countries in the Council of Ministers. The whole procedure is expected to take one or two years before a final directive can be adopted by the Council, depending on whether any great differences of opinion should arise.

Christer Ågren

¹ Sixth Interim Report to the Commission on Cost-effective control of acidification and ground-level ozone. IIASA 1998. In three parts, all available on Internet: www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains/. The titles are: Part A, Methodology and databases. Part B: Emission control scenarios. Part C: Economic evaluation of proposals for emission ceilings for atmospheric pollutants.

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Table 1. Emissions (in ktons) for the reference (REF) and the NEC scenario. Percentage changes (in paranthesis) as compared to the base year 1990.

Table 2. Emission control costs for the NEC scenario. Costs in million ECU per year, for the year 2010.

Table 3. Acidification. Ecosystems unprotected, i.e. with acid deposition greater than the critical loads. 1000 hectres and per cent (in parenthesis).

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LCP DIRECTIVE

Old plants are the problem

By concentrating on new plants, the Commissions proposal will have little effect.

The EU Commission has recently had the IIASA make a forecast¹ of the likely emissions of air pollutants from large combustion plants in 2010, so as to be able to judge the effect of its proposals for a revision of its directive of 1988 concerning such plants. Although it appears from a preliminary outcome of the IIASA study that the Commissions proposed limit values would certainly result in a distinct reduction of emissions from new plants, the overall reduction would be very small. To really reduce the emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides within the next ten years, measures will therefore have to be taken for control at existing plants as well as new ones.

For its analysis the IIASA first set up a data base with details of the various plants (such as the type of fuel burnt, their capacity and age) in all fifteen member countries. Since the target was the year 2010, it was necessary to make assumptions as to the use of energy in that year, and the scenario chosen for this was the Conventional Wisdom one from the Commissions energy directorate (DGXVII). That scenario does not however take into account the commitments made by the EU to bring down emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the Kyoto protocol. Instead it figures increased emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.

Other important factors that had to be taken into account were a) the shape of plants yet to be built, their capacity and the type of fuel they will use, b) load factors, the extent to which capacity would be used during the year, and c) how long existing plants would be kept going. Although some information could be obtained from the member countries and various trade associations, in many cases the IIASA had to make assumptions about these things. For operational lifetime a technical age of 30 years is assumed for boilers in manufacturing industry, and 40 years for those in power plants.

After having compared the official emission requirements with the reports of actual emissions, the IIASA consultants concluded that plants were usually being operated in such a way that the long-term average emissions were well below the legal requirements. The reasons were that

• Plant operators were wont to aim at having a margin of safety up to the ELVs (emission limit values), so as to avoid interruptions in the production of electricity and heat from unexpected events. The margin was usually between 20 and 40 per cent.
• In some countries emission charges can make it financially worthwhile to use the potential for emissions abatement to the outmost in order to minimize charges.
• Because the extra operating cost of more-efficient emission control is often small, some operators choose to improve the environmental performance of their plants as a means of bettering or at least retaining a good public image for their company.
• It is usually good engineering practice to operate existing technical equipment at the best possible mode.

• Under current legislation, giving the likely emissions in 2010 without taking into consideration the effects of the Commissions proposals for new ELVs for post-2000 plants.
• With the 1998 revision, showing the expected effects of the proposed ELVs for the post-2000 plants.
• A hypothetical full penetration case, with the revised ELVs applied to all large combustion plants, irrespective of their age. (To provide a rough idea of the situation in the distant future, when all the boilers installed before 2000 will have been phased out, and all the remaining ones subject to the new ELVs. Future changes in the energy structure were ignored.)

The results of these various calculations can be seen in the table below. With the likelihood of few new plants being built between 2000 and 2010, the proposed ELVs can only be expected to produce a limited reduction of emissions by 2010. The emissions from LCPs, both of SO₂ and NOx, would be about 3 per cent less. Considering the total of emissions from all sectors, the falloff would be only 1 per cent for SO₂ and one-half per cent for NOx.

It is worth noting that the use of fossil fuels will have to be lower than has been assumed in the energy scenario used by IIASA, if the EU is to honour its commitments under the Kyoto protocol. The IIASA figures for the emission reductions resulting from application of the EU Commissions proposals most therefore be overestimates rather than underestimates.

In any case the Commissions proposals will only result in modest reductions, the reason being that far and away the greater part of the emissions from LCPs, both now and in 2010, will come from existing plants. According to the IIASA estimates, in 2010 85 per cent of the emissions of SO₂, and 70 per cent of those of NOx, will come from plants built before 1987.

Christer Ågren

¹ Impacts of revised emission limit values for large combustion plants on EU15 emissions in 2010. Draft final report to the European Commission, DGXI. Contract No. M5-9000/97 /00636/MAR/E1. By the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.

Estimated emissions of SO₂ and NOx from LCPs in the EU in 2010 (ktons).

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CALL FROM ENVIRONMENTALISTS

Put requirements on existing plants

The EU Commissions proposal for a revision of its directive on large combustion plants has now been openly criticized in a document issued by three European environmentalist organizations,¹ who maintain that it will fail to protect either the environment or peoples health, and that the requirements set down in it in no way correspond to the possibilities of the engineering techniques that are now available. The three organizations are therefore calling for a further tightening of the proposed emission limits for new plants, and for requirements to be put on existing ones.

In the preliminaries, its so-called explanatory memorandum, the Commission claimed that the proposed amendments to the directive would support implementation of its acidification strategy as well as its measures for reducing ground-level ozone. While agreeing that this what they ought to do, the environmentalists consider that the Commissions proposals will do little or nothing to further the stated aims.

The environmentalist organizations base their criticism in part on an analysis made for the Commission (see previous page) showing that the amendments will have done very little to reduce emissions by 2010, the year when the interim targets of the acidification strategy were to be attained. If there is to be any marked reduction of emissions from large combustion plants within the coming ten years, say the NGOs, further requirements will have to be placed on existing plants, not only on the new ones. Not only will this be necessary, it will also be cost-effective.

After 2000 the LCPs will be split into three categories, each subject to different requirements: those licensed before July 1, 1987; between that date and January 1, 2000; and after January 1, 2000. In other words, pre-1987, post-1987, and post-2000. It is only for those in this last category that the proposed new emission limit values are to be mandatory.

Since they consider the new ELVs fail to match the best available techniques, the environmentalist NGOs are proposing stricter standards, as shown in Table 1.

It is the lack of measures to curb emissions from existing plants that causes the severest criticism. The NGOs are therefore putting forward an alternative proposal, namely to have emission limits set, from January 1, 2004, for all existing plants covered by the directive. In other words, the pre-1987 as well as the post-1987 ones. The consider that five years should give the plant operators ample time for readjusting. The requirements that the NGOs are now pushing are essentially the same as those that have been applicable for new plants since 1987. See Table 2. In the former West Germany even stricter requirements had been in force since the early eighties.

Since the proposed ELVs are far below the levels that can already be attained by current techniques, certain adjustments are urged involving somewhat stricter requirements for sulphur emissions from small and medium-sized plants (up to 500 MW_th), as well as a tightening of the requirements for NOx emissions from the largest plants (with capacities greater than 500 MW_th).

To prove that their proposals for harder emission limit values are both technically and economically sound, the environmentalist NGOs have appended to their criticism of the Commissions proposals a list with data from more than fifteen plants now in operation in four of the EU member countries. These plants are of various age and size, and fired by a variety of fuels. Common for them all is that they easily surmount the requirements proposed by the NGOs for existing plants, as set forth in Table 2. Several of them can record emission levels that are already considerably lower than the limit values proposed by the Commission for plants coming into operation after 2000.

The environmentalists propose moreover that the Commission should be advised to prepare schemes for the use of economic instruments, such as taxes or charges, to be applied within the EU as means of bringing down emissions still further. They would also like to see the exceptions for some emission sources and certain types of fuel, which are still included in the Commissions proposals for a revised directive, cut out. And they urge that it should be required of the EU member countries to publish emission data for all the plants concerned.

Christer Ågren

¹ The large combustion plants directive: Comments to the Commissions proposed revision. By The European Environmental Bureau, The European Federation for Transport and Environment, and the Swedish NGO Secretariat on Acid Rain. Available from the EEB, 34 Bd de Waterloo, 1000 Brussels. Tel. +32 2 2891090. Fax. +32 2 2891099.

Table 1. NGO proposals for post-2000 plants. Emission limit values expressed as milligrams per cubic metre (mg/m³). Plant sizes in megawatts thermal input (MW_th).

¹ For gas turbines using natural gas, the limit value should be 50 mg NOx/m³.

Table 2. NGO proposals for existing plants. Emission limit values to become mandatory as from January 1, 2004. The underlined figures are the same as those that have applied to new plants from 1987, according to the LCP directive of 1988. Units as above.

¹ Linear decrease.

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MOTOR FUELS

Bringing about improvements

Through tax differentials, better fuels have come rapidly onto the market.

Sweden and Finland have led the way with less-polluting motor fuels. They have done this by using tax differentials with a complete transformation of the market for petrol and diesel fuel as a result. Legislation has now been passed in the EU, too, making stricter specifications mandatory for these fuels (see AN 3/98). And for an analysis of the results obtained in Sweden and Finland from improving motor fuels, the governments of the two countries commissioned a report¹ from the consultants Arthur D. Little.

The reason for wanting to improve the quality of motor fuels was of course to reduce those exhaust emissions that have an adverse effect on human health and the environment in general. Sulphur in petrol, for instance, affects the performance of three-way catalyzers, so that less sulphur in the fuel will result in lower emissions of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide. With lower concentrations of sulphur and aromatics in diesel fuel there will be decreased emissions of particulate matter and carcinogenic substances. Moreover, secondary treatment of the exhaust gases from diesel engines is only possible if the sulphur content is kept below about 50 ppm (parts per million). In Sweden, the maximum content for Class 1 diesel fuel is 10 ppm.

Environmentally classified diesel qualities began to be marketed in Sweden in 1991, and those for petrol in 1994. In Finland reformulated grades both for petrol and diesel had appeared in 1993. It was feared, when these moves were being planned, that consumers would not switch to cleaner fuels if they were more expensive, and so refiners would not invest more in the necessary plant than they were legally obliged to do. To provide incentives, the taxes were differentiated, making them higher for the more-polluting fuels than for the cleaner ones.

The tax differentials were large enough to induce the industry to invest in plant, yet without having to increase consumer prices for the improved fuels. It is worth noting, however, that in most cases the tax differential was only a fraction of the normal annual price fluctuations due to movements in world markets. Whereas in 1996, for example, the consumer price variation for petrol in Sweden was 0.07 ecu per litre, the tax differential between environmentally classified petrol and the standard quality was 0.007 ecu.

The refineries responded by investing approximately 543 million ecus in the period between 1990 and 1996. Of this total, 178 million ecus was for producing improved petrol, and 365 million ecus for improved diesel fuel. Whereas in 1991 the refinery configurations in Sweden and Finland were in general similar to those in the rest of the EU, by 1996 they had become very different. Capacity for desulphurization and de-aromatization had increased, as had the use of oxygenates. Benzene precursors from reformers had also been removed.

The consultants have estimated the cumulative value of the tax differentials due to the use of improved fuels to have been about 741 million ecus for the two countries up to 1996. This may be compared with the estimated cost to the industry of 709 million ecus for investments, increased operating costs, and sulphur premia for low-sulphur fuels.

Some of the benefits or reduced environmental costs resulting from the decreased emissions were also estimated, being put at 170 to 230 million ecus for the period between 1992 and 1996. The consultants stress however that these types of estimate for benefits are subject to much debate, and should therefore only be regarded as indicative. Swedish national estimates, for instance, give significantly higher figures for reduced environmental costs. Moreover the methodology that was used did not take into account reductions in the emissions of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) or benzene.

The conclusion of the study was that differentiating taxes is a quick and effective method for changing market conditions so as to enable improved fuel qualities to gain a dominant share. If consumers should be unwilling to pay a higher price for less-polluting fuels, the tax differentials need to be large enough to induce refiners to produce the improved fuels, by providing cover both for the necessary investments and the increased operating costs. After the investments have been made, and the new fuels have come onto the market, a new steady state will have been achieved, and the tax differentials can then be altered to reflect changing market conditions.

As used in Sweden and Finland, tax differentials brought improved fuels rapidly onto the market. Besides giving the countrys refiners an incentive to make the investments, they also seem to have had a positive effect on their operations. Exactly how much the environmental costs have been reduced is uncertain. Since such costs are largely associated with human health, however, it may be assumed that even greater benefits than those noted in Sweden and Finland would result from the introduction of improved fuels in more densely populated areas of Europe.

Christer Ågren

¹ Case Study - The introduction of improved transport fuel qualities in Finland and Sweden. By Arthur D. Little AB, Box 70434, S-107 25 Stockholm, Sweden.

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EU News Digest

Agreeing
As expected, both the Parliament and the Council of Ministers accepted the compromise solutions for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, and also for the quality standards for liquid fuels, which had come about through conciliation this summer. The directives that have now been agreed upon, with specific requirements for the years 2000 and 2005, constitute part of the auto-oil package (see AN 3/98).

Not yet
Soon after Parliament and the Council had agreed on the above matters, the former started calling for action on emissions from heavy vehicles. Its main contention is that emission standards for 2005 should be set without delay. The proposal put forward by the Commission in December last year only included requirements for the year 2000 (see AN 1/98). The Commission, however, wants to await the possible findings of further research before making any definite proposals for 2005, and most of the EU countries seem to agree that this would be reasonable.

Now for tractors
Tractors used in agriculture and forestry should have to comply with the same emission standards as other heavy non-road equipment, says the Commission in a proposal for a directive that it presented in September. The directive for other non-road equipment, which was finally adopted in the autumn of 1997 (see AN 1/98, p.8 and 4/96, p.7), contains only mild requirements, at least compared with those for the engines of heavy road-using vehicles. Since however all such equipment had previously been unregulated, the gains will nevertheless be considerable. When fully applied, the new rules are expected to result in reductions in the emissions of particles, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides by 67, 29, and 42 per cent, compared with what could otherwise have been expected from this type of engine.

Motorbikes
Stricter emission requirements for motorcycles are awaited next year. If accepted, they will apply either from 2003 or 2005. The Commission has also announced rules for cutting the noise from two- and three-wheelers, which would be a matter for a separate directive.

Environment Watch: Western Europe. October 2, 1998.

Exposing polluters
A list of the largest point sources for emissions of a number of substances, published by the EU Commission, is due to appear in 2001, as a result of the directive on integrated pollution prevention and control that will come into effect in October next year (see AN 2/98). The directive lays down uniquivocally that such a list, giving the principal emissions and their sources, is to be issued every third year. Although some of the key provisions of the directive will not affect existing installations until October 2007, the Pollution Emissions Register avoids this restriction. From the start, too, it will include emissions from existing plants as well as new ones, assures Peter Wicks at the Commission.

Environment Watch: W. Europe. October 2, 1998.

Benzene in air
The Commissions environment directorate wants to set a limit value for benzene of 5 micrograms per cubic metre of air, yearly average, to be achieved by 2010 at the latest. No exceeding of the limit would be tolerated. The proposal for this was put forward at a meeting with the Commissions advisory group on air quality in October.

The average background level of benzene in the air of European cities is often twice as high as the proposed limit. In streets it may be three to four times higher again, according to the Commission. Since petrol-driven vehicles are the main source, acceptance of the proposal will mean that measures to curb traffic will be necessary in many places. Some improvement may however be expected before 2010, since it has already been decided to limit the benzene content of petrol to 1 per cent from the year 2000, and there will be sharpened requirements for the exhaust emissions from new cars in 2000 and further in 2005 (see AN 3/98).

Infrastructure spending
More money needs investing in Europes transport infrastructure, is the Commissions view after an evaluation of the progress of Trans European Networks, TENs. The Commissions attitude is that roads and railways help to promote development of the common market, to boost GDP, and create new jobs. It thinks the member countries had performed badly in this respect, and urges the need on the one hand for other forms of investment, and a doubling of the EU budget for this purpose on the other.

Press release from the Commission, October 28, 1998.

CO₂ from cars
As expected, the EU environment ministers gave their approval to the agreement on emissions of carbon dioxide from cars that had been reached between the Commission and ACEA, the automobile industrys trade association, this summer (see AN 3/98). The ministers were however careful to emphasize that the target set in 1996 to bring down the emissions of carbon dioxide from the average new car to 120 g/km by 2005, or at latest by 2010 still applied. The agreement with the ACEA will result in its being 140 g/km in 2008. Among the further measures needed to achieve the ministers target, special taxes and tax incentives have been mentioned, as well as a fuel-economy labelling scheme for the whole EU.

Environment Watch: Western Europe. October 16, 1998.

More for railways
Among the various forms of transport infrastructure, roads have so far got the most out of the EU cohesion fund. In 1997, however, almost a third of the outpayments went to railways, according to an October report from the Commission. This was also the first year in which more was paid out for environmental projects than for transportation. The fund disburses 2.7 billion ecus a year for infrastructure projects for transport and environment, and in the poorer EU countries, which now means Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland, the Commission intends to continue as at present, but also wants to set up a special fund for paying 1 billion ecus a year for transport and environmental projects in the candidate countries, to help bring their environmental standards into line with EU laws.

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TRANSALPINE ROAD TRAFFIC

End to deadlock

In a referendum in September the Swiss voted for big rises in charges on heavy trucks. Besides helping to switch freight to the railways, this should put an end to the differences between Switzerland and the EU over transit traffic through the Alps.

Instead of the present charge for transit trucks of 25 francs per time, there will be one fixed according to the weight of the truck and the distance to be travelled within Switzerland. To begin with, in 2001, the charge will be 0.016 franc per ton-kilometre, but will rise to 0.026 franc in 2005. Thus a typical movement with a truck of the present permitted size (28 tons and 300 kilometres) would cost 134 francs in 2001 and 220 francs in 2005. But the allowable truck weight is to be increased to 34 tons in 2001, and to 40 tons (EU maximum) in 2005.

The income from the charges is estimated to be 750 million francs in 2001 and about twice that amount in 2005. About 65 per cent will be paid by Swiss truckers transit traffic accounting for about 35 per cent of the truck movements in Switzerland.

Half of the money is intended to be used for financing two new railway tunnels, a huge expansion of the railway network and noise-screening arrangements along the transit routes. These plans must however first have been agreed in another referendum, on November 29. The higher charges on road transport, together with improvements in the railway infrastructure, are expected to lead to more of the freight through the Alps being carried by rail.

An interesting aspect of the deal is that the amounts of the charges have not only been set so as to pay for investments in the infrastructure, but also to internalize some of the costs that heavy road transports do not now incur, such as environmental damage. According to Swiss government sources, the external costs of heavy road traffic now run to 1.5 billion francs a year.

The charge schedule that the Swiss electorate has now approved had already been agreed by the EU transport commissioner, Neil Kinnock, earlier this year, thus making it possible to break the four-year deadlock in the negotiations between Switzerland and the European Union concerning traffic through the Alps. The matter will be taken up by the transport ministers of the EU countries when they meet on November 30.

It is hoped that settlement of the Swiss transit problem will ease the way to a general solution for charging heavy road traffic in the whole of EU, as proposed in the Eurovignette directive (COM(96)331). See AN 4/96, p.5 and 2/97, p.5).

Sources: Environment Watch: Western Europe. October 2, 1998. T&E Bulletin, October 1998. David Asseo, Verkehrsclub Schweiz/Association transports et environnement, Switzerland. E-mail: d.asseo@vcs-ate.ch.

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RUSSIA

Problems of burning fossil fuels efficiently

In Russia, as in most other countries, coal is becoming less and less used for power production. Natural gas is already the most widely used source of energy, and its share is growing a trend that is expected to continue at least until the year 2010. This is all to the good, since the harmful emissions are less than from coal and oil.

Both coal and oil from domestic sources in Russia are for the most part of low quality, with high contents of sulphur. Coal mining has however been steadily declining since 1990, from 387 million tons to 255 million (in 1996, the last year for which figures are available).

Figures for emissions of air pollutants are difficult to obtain in Russia, and even official data is often put in question. The reason is chiefly that monitoring is mainly a matter for the individual generators. Impartial measuring of the emissions by the regional offices within GosComPrirodi the State Committee of the Russian Federation for Protection of the Environment is still not common. Emissions of air pollutants from power generating do nevertheless show a downward trend (see table below).

Standards do exist for limiting the emissions of air pollutants from Russian power plants. The last, which were promulgated in 1995, set rules for plants built both before and after 2000, and are comparable with EU standards. But poor administration coupled with Russias present financial state means that checks on compliance are seldom carried out, and so enforcement is often lacking.

Despite the hard times for Russian industry, engineers are busily designing more efficient and less polluting systems for burning coal and other fossil fuels, and several are already being tested in old thermal power stations. Equipment is also being tested for removing 99 per cent of the sulphur from flue gases.

In the aftermath of communism, Russias economy is in a state of limbo, and it may be some time before the difficulties of the transition period can be overcome, and full attention given to the problems of burning fossil fuels efficiently, so that environmental standards can really be attained.

Vladislav Larin

The writer is senior expert at the Moscow ECOPRESSCENTER, st. Rogova, 12 - 46, Moscow 123479, Russia.

Emissions of harmful pollutants from Russian thermal power stations (million tons).

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EUROPEAN FORESTS

Damage has steadily increased

Not much is heard nowadays about the state of the European forests. But as can be seen from the result of the continuous surveys, the situation is now much worse than it was when the alarm bells rang loudest in the mid-eighties.

In the summer of 1997 some 635,000 trees were examined in the national surveys carried out by thirty-two countries, and the results, from altogether 130 million hectares of forest land, can be seen from the table below. Some 124,000 trees of the total covered in the national surveys, spread over about 5700 sample plots, were used for a Europe-wide assessment which revealed that 25.1 per cent of the trees were damaged. This means that at the time of sampling they had lost at least 25 per cent of their leaves or needles, judged by reference trees of the same species. The proportion was about the same as the year before, and about the same both for conifers and deciduous trees.

Still, conclusions are best not drawn from any single year it is better to consider developments over a series of years. What makes this possible is a number of so-called common sample trees that have been examined every year. Between 1988 and 1997 it was about 30,000 a year, and from 1992 onwards 68,000 trees.

In the ten-year series the proportion of damaged trees had steadily increased, from 13 per cent in 1988 to 23 per cent in 1997. But because these common sample trees are not evenly spread over the continent, the survey puts more weight on what is happening in the Mediterranean region and along the Atlantic seaboard than in the rest of Europe.

The geographic spread was better in the 1992-97 series. But although the general trend was similar, a slight improvement could be seen in central and eastern Europe, where the proportion of damaged trees had dropped from 37.5 per cent in 1992 to 35 per cent in 1997.

Little has been added of late to what is known about the connection between air pollution and forest decline, although it is evident enough in places where the concentrations of air pollutants are very high. The critical concentrations for ozone, for instance, are frequently being exceeded in many parts of Europe. It is likely that air pollutants will tend to stress the trees even in low concentrations, making them more susceptible to damage from drought, frost, and insect attack, and continued acidification of the soil may be assumed to have a similar effect.

Long drought periods are considered to be a notable cause of forest damage in many countries. Air pollution is however reported to be a predisposing, accompanying, or locally triggering factor in a third of the countries. Combinations of natural factors, or interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors, may also be involved, although it is difficult to identify them.

Other surveys are also being made as part of the European effort to get a better understanding of cause and effect in forest changes (see for instance AN 4-5/97). As it will be some years however before any results are available, in the meantime the annual surveys will be all that we have to go on.

Per Elvingson

Forest Condition in Europe. Results of the 1997 crown condition survey. 1998 Technical Report. 118 pp. + annexes. There is also a summary in Forest Condition in Europe. 1998 Executive Report. 48 pp. Both reports are available from the Programme Coordinating Centre of IPC Forests, c/o Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products (BFH), Leuschnerstr. 91, D-21031 Hamburg, Germany. Fax. +49 40 739 62 480.

Country-by-country data for the period 1988- 1996 can be found in Acid News 4-5/97.

Results from national forest-damage surveys 1995-97. Percentage of trees in Classes 2-4 (defoliation >25 per cent).

¹ Excluding maquis.
² Conifers only.
³ Data only from Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions.

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EFFECTS OF OZONE

Reduced tree growth at todays concentrations

The forest trees of northern Europe become more damaged by ground-level ozone than those in the south of the continent, despite the concentrations of ozone being lower in the north.

Ozone, a strong oxidant, is poisonous both to plants and animals. The greater sensitivity of northern forests can be explained by the relatively damp climate and the long hours of daylight in the summer. In consequence the stomata the small breathing holes in leaves and needles remain open for an exceptionally long time, enabling ozone to enter and cause damage. The chlorophyll content of leaves and needles drops, and they became prematurely aged, which means that the trees ability to utilize solar energy diminishes.

By growing spruce in open-top chambers scientists have been able to determine how the ozone in the air affects growth. By transposing the results of the field tests to mathematical models they were able to calculate that with the ozone concentrations that are now common over southern Sweden, the growth in volume of a spruce tree during its whole lifetime could be reduced by 3-10 per cent compared with what it would have been in preindustrial times.

The average concentrations are now reckoned to be two to four times higher than they were then. It is however of more interest from the point of view of effects that plants exposure to harmful concentrations of ozone (more than 30-40 ppb) has increased much more. It may therefore be reasonable to conclude that the present concentrations are causing forest owners considerable economic loss.

Note. The research on the effects of ozone on spruce has been carried out in collaboration between the Botanical Institution at Gothenburg University and the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL). The findings are set forth in IVL Report B1306, which can be obtained from IVL, Box 47086, 402 58 Göteborg, Sweden. Internet: www.ivl.se.

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NITROGEN

Affecting the flora in South Sweden

The number of species of vascular plants has become almost halved of late in nutrient-poor fens in southern Sweden. The species most affected has been few-flowered sedge (Carex pauciflora), which has declined by 97 per cent, although closely followed by brown beak-sedge (Rhyncospora fusca) and dioecious sedge (Carex dioica), both of which have fallen away by 95 per cent. But many species associated with nutrient-rich fens, natural pasturage, raised bogs, and waters poor in nutrients have often gone into sharp decline too. There has on the other hand been little change in species growing on forest land. Altogether forty-six species have declined by more than 75 per cent.

These facts were revealed by the botanist Torbjörn Tyler when he compared the present situation with the results of inventories made in the period from 1938 to 1971. He maintains that the changes on rich fens and unfertilized grasslands are mainly ascribable to changes in land use, but that other explanations must be found for what has happened on unfarmed land, such as nutrient-poor fenland and raised bogs. One explanation might be the extensive fallouts of nitrogen. For several decades depositions in southernmost Sweden have amounted to 10-30 kilograms per hectare a year. It can be seen from statistical analysis that species favoured by nitrogen have increased most in every kind of environment, while species that are known to be at a disadvantage on nitrogen-rich soils have declined.

It seems in any case clear that nitrogen is having a greater effect on flora than acidification. Tyler notes, too, that the findings from South Sweden correspond closely with those from similar counts in the Netherlands and eastern Germany.

The effects of nitrogen on the composition of the flora are confirmed by Tylers list of species that have increased most between the two periods surveyed. Several species favoured by nitrogen, including spear-leaved orache (Atriplex prostrata), many-seeded goosefoot (Chenopodium polyspermum), and dewberry (Rubus caesius), have all become two or three times more common in the region.

Per Elvingson

Tyler T. & Olsson, K.A. 1997: Förändringar i Skånes flora under perioden 1938-1996 statistisk analys av resultat från två inventeringar. Svensk Botanisk Tidskrift 91:143-185. In Swedish, but with an English summary.

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NITROGEN

Dutch hold first international conference

Realizing that the pivotal function of nitrogen and its complex mutations needed to be elucidated, the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment and the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment took upon themselves to arrange the First International Nitrogen Conference. This was held last March at Nordwijkerhout and attended by some 200 delegates. About a hundred verbal presentations were given, and a like number of poster presentations.

Here are some of the highlights of the statement adopted by the delegates at the conference:

• An integrated approach is strongly recommended for the abatement of nitrogen pollution. This will enable targets for acidification, eutrophication, health, and global warming to be met simultaneously.
• The region where human perturbation of the nitrogen cycle is highest is Asia. Unless drastic measures are taken, the problems of nitrogen will remain greatest here.
• One way of bringing about a reduction of nitrogen in the environment would be to attach the environmental costs to the prices of raw materials or of products.
• A high potential for the reduction of emissions lies in social changes, such as an increased use of bicycles, a greater turning to vegetarian diet, etc. There will need to be an increase in education, communication, and public awareness. The time needed to bring about the necessary changes could be greatly reduced by using financial incentives.
• The most effective way of reducing the emissions of ammonia will often be to lower the number of animals in food production. There are also technical methods for using ammonia much more efficiently in agriculture, although they will require more mixed farming in place of todays specialization.

This first nitrogen conference was held under the auspices of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, and a second one is planned to take place in the United States in 2001.

A summary statement from the Nordwijkerhout conference can be obtained from Stan Smeulders, Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, P.O. Box 30945, 2500 GX Den Haag, The Netherlands.

About a hundred of the addresses and papers presented at the conference will appear in a special issue of the journal Environmental Pollution late in 1998. They will also be available in book form from Elsevier Science (ISBN 008 0432018). For information, please turn to nlinfo-f@elsevier.nl.
 
Factfile: Effects of various forms of nitrogen
Nitrogen oxides are known to conduce to respiratory diseases in humans, either through direct exposure or indirectly by partaking in the formation of ground-level ozone and other photochemical oxidants, as well as fine particulate aerosols.

Crops, forest trees, and entire ecosystems can also be damaged by ozone.

Nitrogen oxides and ammonia add to acidification, which not only affects natural ecosystems but also helps to intensify corrosion and in some cases has even spoilt drinking water.

Both of these pollutants contribute to eutrophication, which hits biological diversity on land and in water, and affects groundwater.

Depositions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia - as well as the addition of nitrogen to arable land through the spreading of manure and artificial fertilizer - result in increased formation of nitrous oxide by microorganisms in the soil. Nitrous oxide, N₂O, is a powerful greenhouse gas.

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from aircraft cruising at great heights help to break down the ozone layer. At lower heights the nitrogen oxides contribute to ozone formation, probably with a significant effect on climate.

Nitrogen oxides make for reduced visibility at places of scenic interest and also at airports.

One single nitrogen atom can give rise to a veritable cascade of effects, such as by first contributing to the formation of urban smog, then either to acidification or eutrophication, or both, and finally to the greenhouse effect by conversion to nitrous oxide.

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AIR POLLUTANTS

Transformations and depositions

The downward trend has continued for Europes emissions of acidifying air pollutants. According to the latest report from the EMEP, the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, in 1996 the manmade emissions of sulphur dioxide were 56 per cent lower than they had been in 1980, the latest figures showing them to have been 24.9 million tons. Nitrogen oxides also continue to show a slow decline from their peak in the late eighties, to 20.5 million tons, which is 11 per cent less than in 1980. The emissions of ammonia are estimated to have declined by nearly 18 per cent since 1980, to about 6.8 million tons. In contrast to those for sulphur and nitrogen oxides, the data for ammonia is however highly uncertain.

The EMEP operates under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, using data supplied by each country adhering to the convention. But besides the national figures for manmade pollutants, its report includes estimates of the natural emissions of sulphur from the seas (dimethyl sulphide produced by phytoplankton) and from volcanoes.

Although the estimates of emissions from shipping in international trade in the North Sea and the northeastern Atlantic have recently been updated, the figures still only refer to 1990. Moreover the data for the Baltic only covers vessels moving in and out of that sea, and the emissions from shipping in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, never having been properly investigated, must be greatly underestimated.

In combination with meteorological data, the emissions figures form the basis for calculations in a computer model to describe the transformation and deposition of pollutants as they move about over Europe. Field checks of concentrations and fallout are made in order to verify the results of the modelling.

Depositions that cannot be traced to any particular country are grouped under indeterminate sources (IND). About two-thirds are thought to emanate from within Europe, the rest from North America and Asia.

The latest figures on exports and imports of sulphur and oxidized as well as reduced nitrogen compounds appear in Tables 2, 3, and 4.* Since the transports of pollutants may be affected in varying extent by the weather and air currents, the values are given as annual averages for the three-year period from 1994 to 1996.

The EMEP data is important in providing a check on the way the signatories to the Conventions protocols are living up to their commitments, and in showing the general effect of these protocols.

Christer Ågren

Source: Transboundary acidifying air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-W Report 1/98. Available from the publisher: MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Box 43, Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway.

* Table 1-4. Sorry! The tables are too complex to be published on this website. Please go to www.emep.int.

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CIVIL AVIATION

No inclination to do anything

Little to the advantage of the environment came out of the meeting of the general assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization at the end of September and the beginning of October.

• There are to be new emission standards for nitrogen oxides, applying from 2004. Although this will amount to a tightening of the requirements by 16 per cent, in effect it is meaningless, since modern aircraft engines already meet the standard, and those now in use need no modification.
• The European Union as well as some individual European countries wanted the ICAO to prepare a framework decision for the introduction of emissions-related levies before the next general assembly in 2001. Although the proposal was rejected, it was nevertheless agreed that a study should be made of the effects of environmental charges and taxes on airline operation.
• Due to the lack of agreement as to how the emissions from international aviation should be apportioned out among the nations, they are not regulated in the Kyoto protocol under the climate convention. The EU countries were therefore urging the ICAO to set to work on the matter, but as the idea was unattractive to a majority of the 185 countries represented in the general assembly, all that emerged was a vague agreement to the effect that the ICAO should in future place a strong emphasis on addressing emissions of greenhouse gases.
• The general assembly also issued a rebuke to the EU because it had introduced rules for limiting noise from aircraft, in a resolution urging ICAO members to "refrain from unilateral environmental measures that would be harmful to the development of international civil aviation."

For more information, apply ICAO, 999 University Street, Montreal, Quebec H3C 5H7, Canada. Web site: www.icao.org.

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AMMONIA

Surprisingly great emissions from cars

Since 1993 all new cars in the EU have had to be equipped with catalytic converters, which greatly reduce the emissions of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide. But it is evidently less known that catalyzers actually increase the emissions of ammonia, a pollutant that adds to eutrophication as well as acidification. According to a study that has just been published in Sweden, the emissions of ammonia from cars with catalyzers may be much greater than has previously been believed, especially when cars are being driven hard. In terms of nitrogen equivalents, the amounts of ammonia may even be greater than those of nitrogen oxides.

The causes have been known for some time, both to researchers and the car manufacturers, and there are accepted computer models for calculating the emissions. An example is that used in CORINAIR, a program for assembling European emissions data that is run by the official European Environmental Agency. The EU member countries nevertheless give greatly varying figures for emissions of ammonia from road traffic. Some, such