No. 2, June 1999

Main articles summarized

Editorial: Piling it on
One would imagine that few people, if indeed any, would agree with the assertion that the regulation in question will lay an "enormous and unnecessary burden on the EU and consumers."

Acidification: Outlook for the year 2010
Despite the distinct reduction of acidifying emissions that is expected to take place in Europe during the next decade, by 2010 the critical loads for depositions are still likely to be exceeded over great areas, and acidification to remain a problem for many decades following.

Forest soils
A study of the situation in southern Sweden shows increased acidification - a process that will only cease when acidifying depositions have dropped below the critical loads.

Soil and water
Experiment in Sweden suggests that even with huge cuts in emissions it will take a long time to repair the damage from a lengthy period of acid fallout.

Multi-pollutant protocol
Although little progress was made at Geneva in March, the aim is still to have a protocol ready for signing before the end of the year.

LCP directive
The EU Parliament wants to have stricter standards for new large combustion plants than those proposed by the Commission, but also to see controls extended to existing plants.

Ozone, emissions control
While measures for reducing acidification and ground-level ozone will be delayed as a result of the Commission's demission, the interim goal still stands, but with new figures for costs and benefits.

Czech shake-up
A change in government policy has meant that the effects of proposed measures will have to be assessed in all fields, and a serious start has been made for energy.

Stuck with it
Estonia can find no alternative to oil shale as a source of energy. Pact with Finland calls however for an 80-per-cent reduction of sulphur emissions by 2005.

Aviation and climate change
Warning of the effects of air traffic on climate, the IPCC proposes various measures for curbing emissions from aircraft.

Alleged vs real costs
A study of cases of environmental regulation has been made to try and find out whether the claims of industry as to the costs of compliance have been valid or not.

United States
Proposing new standards for cars and fuel, the EPA says this is the first time that tailpipe emissions and sulphur in gasoline are being addressed in a single system to achieve cleaner air cost-efficiently.

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EDITORIAL

Piling it on

On February 24 the European Voice bulletin ran an article stating that the expected proposal for an EU directive on national ceilings for four air-pollutants would cost the member states an extra euro 7.5 billion yearly in top of the euro 58 billion in annual cost for complying with existing and promised laws. It also quoted the Union of European Industrial and Employers' Federation as asserting that the draft proposals would impose an enormous and unnecessary burden on the EU and consumers.

No mention was made of the fact that those responsible for the figures - the Commission's environmental directorate and the consultants IIASA - were fully aware that they were gross overestimates. There are several reasons for that being so.

Firstly, the estimates have been based on a reduction of the emissions solely through the application of technical measures - thus ignoring the fact that a lot of non-technical methods are possible and often relatively inexpensive. Among them are so-called structural changes, such as switching fuels from coal to gas or biofuels, improving energy efficiency, and early retirement of old, inefficient, and polluting plants.

Secondly, the figures reflect current technology and costs. They take no account of technical developments and improvements that could result in a more efficient removal of the polluting substances and lower cost. Nor of new techniques that are coming onto the market.

Finally there is the fact, and perhaps the most significant, that the energy scenario that has been employed for making the analysis stands in total contradiction to the EU's commitments to reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide. According to the Commission's own analysis, made with the use of a more appropriate scenario, implying fulfillment of the EU commitments under the Kyoto protocol, the cost for meeting the requirements of the four-pollutant directive would be 40 per cent less than supposed.

Besides trundling out these clearly wrong estimates, without any reservations, industry has often had a tendency to add up the total, also exaggerated, estimates of the cost of compliance with coming as well as existing legislation - and call that an additional burden.

It is unfortunate that the writers should have played along, consciously or unconsciously, with such disinformation, since the bulletin reaches many officials, politicians, and other decision makers in Brussels, and so can broadcast a distinctly misleading idea of the effects of the proposed directive just at the critical moment of its being adopted by the Commission.

One wonders why industry persists in dealing out disinformation in this manner. A partial reply can be found in a study conducted by the Stockholm Environment Institute, where an attempt is made to compare the supposed costs of proposed legislation with assessments of the actual cost (see article). Part of the answer also lies in the fact that trade associations, through some sort of tradition, often tend to adopt a "least-common-denominator" attitude - which means defending the arguments of those of their members with the worst environmental records. Consequently the trade associations are wont to express vehement opposition to any new proposals for regulation, their aim being first to try and prevent them, and if that fails, to delay and hold them up.

In conclusion it may be said that although euro 7.5 billion may seem a lot of money, it only amounts to euro 20 per individual in the European Union. If the EU should really carry out the climate policy to which it is committed, and there should be no stop to technical developments, the real cost of the four-pollutant directive would be no more than half the supposed figure, or at the most euro 10 per individual per annum. One would imagine that few people, if indeed any, would agree with the assertion that the regulation in question will lay an "enormous and unnecessary burden on the EU and consumers" - especially if all the ensuing benefits to health and the environment are taken into consideration. While only some of these benefits can be assessed in terms of money, those that are so quantifiable can be accounted as worth as much as four times the supposed, overestimated, costs.

Christer Ågren

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ACIDIFICATION

Outlook for the year 2010

Considerable areas of Sweden, well worth protection, will continue to be overexposed.

Despite the distinct reduction of acidifying emissions that is expected to take place in Europe during the next decade, by 2010 the critical loads for depositions are still likely to be exceeded over great areas, and acidification to remain a problem for many decades following. The outlook as concerns Sweden has now been probed by a group of scientists from the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) in Göteborg, who have calculated the species and areas of natural interest that will be affected even if the current plans for reducing emissions are actually carried out. The aim has been to give decision makers and the public an idea of the problems that will still remain.

The first part of their report¹ shows how acidification will affect different parts of Sweden in 2010 under alternative assumptions² in regard to emissions (see table). These are:

• The reduction resulting from decisions already made, both by individual countries and within the EU, and from international agreements beyond those. This is the reference scenario (REF).
• The emission reductions that would follow if the acidification strategy (F1) proposed by the EU Commission's environment directorate were carried out.

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FOREST SOILS

Acidification process is still going on

Will only cease when acidifying depositions have been brought down to levels where the critical loads are not being exceeded.

Although the depositions of acidifying substances have greatly decreased during the last decade, forest soils in Sweden are becoming ever more acidified - as shown by a comparison of the situation today with that ten years ago, made by Christer Kalén, plant ecologist at the University of Lund.

The trend of soil acidification had previously only been studied on separate plots. This is the first time it has been done for a whole area of the country. The basic information has come from the nationwide survey of forest stands conducted by the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Figures for the degree of acidification (the pH value) for 1983-85 and 1993-95 from 1453 sample plots in South Sweden were fed into a computer model, enabling a calculation to be made of the situation on all forest land in that part of the country.

As can be seen from the figure, the area of forest land in southern Sweden where the pH value of the mineral soil was less than 5.0 had increased from 4 to 6 billion hectares - in other words, from 50 to 75 per cent of the total area covered by the survey. The value of 5.0 has been taken as a limit to distinguish the acidification caused by human activity. When the pH value drops below 5.0, there will also be an increased risk of reduced growth, mainly because of a reduced availability of nutrients.

That soil acidification should continue to increase, despite reduced depositions, is not so odd as it may seem. The process will only cease when the additions of acid can be completely neutralized by the soil (mainly through weathering). This will only happen when the depositions of acidifying substances have been brought down to such levels that the critical loads for acidification are not being exceeded.

The cost will be high if soil acidification is allowed to go on. The annual value of forest increment in Sweden is estimated to be SKr 30 billion (timber value only), and the net value of Swedish exports of forest products to be at least twice that figure. Thus even a small decline in forest growth will result in considerable financial loss. There are also aspects that cannot be assessed in terms of money, such as the possible loss of recreational facilities and biological diversity.

The National Board of Forestry, which commissioned the special survey, thinks delaying tactics, such as liming, will have to continue so long as there is an insufficient reduction of the emissions of air pollutants.

Per Elvingson

Further reading: Forests, Acidification and the Socio-Economic Cost - Estimating Damage and Mitigation Cost of Forest Soil Acidification. By C. Kalén. Published by National Board of Forestry, 551 83 Jönköping, Sweden. Internet: www.svo.se.

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SOIL AND WATER
What hopes for recovery?

What happens to soil and water when acid depositions lessen? Early in the nineties some scientists at the Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL) decided to try and find out by roofing over a whole area of runoff at Gårdsjön, near the coast in West Sweden.

The precipitation and drop from the trees are caught by the roof, covering 6300 sq. metres, and a corresponding amount of almost clean water is spread over the area by a sprinkler system - thus reducing the acid falling on the ground by 95 per cent. The acid in this artificial fallout is no more than the soil is naturally able to neutralize. In other words, it is below the critical level - as it must be if a complete recovery is to take place.

Using information from the Gårdsjön roof-over together with measurements of the deposition at some twenty places in southern Sweden, the IVL scientists have used a mathematical model for forecasting developments in southern Sweden during the next few decades. In this they are building on the assumption that acid depositions will drop by 80 per cent, from what they were at the beginning of the eighties, as a result of current international agreements.

With that scenario the model indicates some improvement for all types of soil in the short term, followed however by a very slow change thereafter. In many places the soil will still not have recovered even after a hundred years. Only the soils with good capabilities will be able to build up a resistance to depositions of acid.

The worst-off soils, with extensive acidification, will need emission reductions away beyond those now agreed upon. Even with huge cuts it will take long time to repair the damage from a lengthy period of acid fallout. Along Sweden's west coast it may take many decades, all depending on the composition and depth of the soil. In other parts of the country, where acid depositions have been lower, it may take less time.

Some significant changes are on the other hand seen to have taken place under the Gårdsjön roof. Only a few years after its installation a distinct drop could be noted in the outflow of sulphur and aluminium compounds to the surface waters. The pH value of the runoff remained however unchanged and its content of base cations was still low. While that indicates a degree of recovery in the soil, it also means that the situation is still critical for surface-water organisms - since most of the water in the surrounding lakes will have passed through the soil.

It is thus reasonable to conclude that the liming of lakes and streams will have to be kept up for several decades after acid depositions have come down under the critical loads.

Per Elvingson

Further reading: Geochemical modelling of acidification and recovery in forest soils and runoff waters. F. Moldan, O. Westling and J. Munthe. Report B 1323, 1999. Obtainable from IVL, Box 470 86, 402 58 Göteborg, Sweden. Internet: www.ivl.se.

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ACIDIFICATION

Dutch study illustrates both local and general effects

The final report on the extensive research into acidification that has recently been carried out in the Netherlands gives a good illustration of the problem in general and the way it affects the Netherlands in particular.

• Between 1980 and 1993 acid depositions dropped by 40 per cent in the Netherlands. The country imports rather more airborne sulphur than it exports, but the reverse is the case with nitrogen oxides and ammonia, where exports are much greater than imports.
• Depositions of nitrogen average 30-40 kg per hectare a year on open country, and 50-60 kg on forest land.
• Sulphur accounts for 36 per cent of the potentially acidifying substances in the fallout over the Netherlands, nitrogen oxides and ammonia for 17 and 47 per cent. But on an average 80 per cent of the nitrogen compounds is either taken up by the vegetation or bound up in the soil, thus neutralizing its acidifying effect. Consequently sulphur accounts on an average for two-thirds of the actual acidification, the rest coming from compounds of nitrogen.
• Despite reduced depositions, the critical limits are still being greatly exceeded for eutrophication as well as acidification. In forest ecosystems the effects of depositions of atmospheric nitrogen constitute almost as great a problem as acidification.
• Nitrogen addition is a threat to biological diversity in heathlands and chalk grasslands - a threat that also affects ecosystems in reserves and other protected areas. As a result of heavy nitrogen depositions, grass instead of heather and other heath plants has become the dominant growth on a third of the country's former heathlands.

For the full story: Acid Atmospheric Deposition and its Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Netherlands. Acid Atmospheric Deposition and its Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Netherlands. Edited by G.J. Heij and J.W. Erisman. Studies in Environmental Science 69 (1997). 716 pp. 450 guilders. Published by Elsevier, P.O. Box 221, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Internet: http://www.elsevier.nl/.

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MULTI-EFFECT PROTOCOL

Negotiations are continuing

Disagreement on technical details, national emission ceilings to wait for next round.

Some small advances were made towards a multi-effect protocol to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution when the matter was taken up during a second round of negotiations at Geneva, March 22-26. The subjects of discussion were, on the one hand, the general construction and content of the protocol, and on the other some proposed technical appendices. Although drafts of some of the more controversial parts of the text of the protocol were also considered, the more difficult matter of national emission ceilings that would be binding for the four air pollutants was carefully avoided. See AN 1/99.

There are technical appendices to several of the various protocols under the Convention. Among those attached to the sulphur protocol of 1994 are some describing BATs, the best available techniques for abatement, which mainly contain recommendations and advice, and others setting down mandatory requirements. The latter type includes one setting limit values for emissions from large combustion plants and also the maximum permitted sulphur content for gas oil (covering both diesel and light fuel oils).

Although both types of appendix were discussed at the March meeting, attention was mostly given to those setting emission limit values for SO2, NOx, and VOCs, but also to requirements for specific products. This last was because several countries want to have such requirements included as a complement to emission ceilings.

Since the new protocol will be taking in four different pollutants, the number of emission sources and products that have to be covered can be very great. The meeting therefore aimed primarily at simplifying and shortening the draft versions of the appendices. Differences of opinion still remain as to the types of emission source that are to be included, and how strict the requirements are to be. Disagreement is greatest however as to whether the requirements of the appendices are to be considered as compulsory, or merely as recommendations.

The appendix for ammonia that is being considered would include a number of measures to limit emissions from various farming activities, but there is disagreement even here as to whether they are to be binding or not.

Considered simply as recommendations were on the other hand various existing documents dealing with ways of reducing emissions - the best available techniques for the four pollutants and their major emission sources.

At the meeting the American delegates announced that they had got clearance from the White House to engage fully in the proceedings, and would thus be in a position to sign a protocol. Since however the analyses on which the protocol is to be based will apply neither to the United States nor to Canada, but only to Europe, these two countries will have to work out some kind of parallel requirements for themselves. But those would only be for SO₂, NOx, and VOCs, not ammonia, since the United States and Canada are agreed that they have no environmental problems on account of cross-border movements of reduced nitrogen compounds.

For the same reason that the EU Commission has revised the basic assumptions for its forthcoming directive on national emission ceilings, the Convention's Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling has had IIASA revise G5/2, the central scenario for negotiation, on the basis of fresh data. That means that some of the figures for emission reductions, for instance, given in AN 1/99, have also had to be altered.¹

The next meeting for negotiation of the protocol will also be taking place in Geneva, from May 31 to June 4. It is then intended to seriously start attacking the biggest and most controversial matters, such as the national ceilings for emissions, and whether any or all of the appendices with requirements for emission limit values are to be binding. The aim is still to have concluded negotiations early in September, so as to have a protocol ready for signing by the environment ministers before year's end.

Christer Ågren

¹ The outcome from the analysis can be seen in the report from the March meeting of the task force, and also in IIASA's report. The Task Force report, labelled EB.AIR/WG5/1999/4 can be obtained from Henning Wuester, e-mail: . IIASA's, entitled "Sensitivity analyses for a central scenario to control acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone in Europe" (March 1999) is on www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains.

RAINS on internet
The RAINS model is now available to anyone on internet. Examine the environmental consequences of IIASA's as well as your own emission scenarios. The result will appear in the form of maps and tables. Try it at: www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains.

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EU COMMISSION

Almost at a standstill

Handling of measures to reduce emissions of air pollutants will now be delayed.

After weeks of internal debate within the European Commission in January and February this year, agreement was finally reached on proposals for an ozone strategy, a directive on national ceilings for emissions of air pollutants, and a new daughter directive for the control of ground-level ozone. These proposals should have been officially adopted at the meeting of the Commission that was scheduled for March 17, but the whole timetable was upset by the Commission's sudden demission the previous night.

The present members will however be staying on until successors have been found, although they will only be attending to current business and otherwise only taking on matters of real urgency. In effect all politically controversial proposals for legislation and strategies are being put on hold. It is still uncertain when a new commission will be formed. It will certainly not be before July, and then probably only as an interim one.

Consequently the handling of proposals for measures to reduce the emissions and concentrations of air pollutants will now be delayed until after the summer, and maybe even longer. Whether any will have to be re-negotiated will depend on the constitution of the new commission, and possibly whether the present environment commissioner, Ritt Bjerregaard, will stay on.

A detailed account of the work of the Commission's environment directorate in developing a strategy for dealing with ozone, as well as the form a directive on national emission ceilings would be likely to take, appeared in Acid News 4/98. Since then further computer modelling has been carried out, in order to include among other things the effects of proposed legislation, as well as fresh data from the EU member countries. The interim goal for 2010, for reducing acidification and ground-level ozone as agreed by the environment directorate, does however still stand. But the input of new data has meant that some of the figures will differ from those given in the article. These concern for instance the national emission ceilings, the estimated costs, and the environmental benefits. The tables have been altered accordingly.

The renewed analysis shows among other things that the annual costs for these proposals can be estimated to fall from 9.1 to 7.5 billion euros in 2010. While the greatest reductions in estimated costs would fall to Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, some countries such as Britain, Greece, and Sweden will be hit by higher costs, according to the new estimates. One big reason for the total cost now being put lower is that the emission reductions resulting from existing and proposed legislation - as presented in the reference scenario - are likely to be greater than was previously supposed.

There is a detailed presentation of the alternatives in the input data, as well as the showings of the IIASA analysis, in the interim report of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis to the EU Commission.

Christer Ågren

Seventh interim report: Cost-effective control of acidification and ground-level ozone (January 1999). By M. Amann et. al., IIASA, Austria. Available on Internet: www.iiasa.ac. at/~rains/, where the benefits analysis "Economic evaluation of proposals for emission ceilings for atmospheric pollutants" (January 1999) by M. Holland et. al., AEA Technology, can also be found.

Table 1. Emissions (in ktons) under the reference (REF) and NEC scenarios. Percentage changes (in paranthesis) from the base year 1990.

Table 2. Costs and benefits (with chronic effects on mortality included) of emission control under the NEC scenario. For 2010, in million ecus per year.

¹ Valuation of life-years lost.
² Value of a statistical life.
Both methods described in AN 2/98.

Table 3. Acidification. Unprotected ecosystem areas: with acid deposition greater than the critical loads. 1000 hectares and percentage (in parenthesis).