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Main articles in brief NEC and LCP finally agreed Kyoto agreement in Bonn Potential for twice the Kyoto reductions Sustainability US NOx emissions Black Triangle Huge decline in German emissions Environmentally Sustainable Transport Road pricing Urban sprawl Emission trends in Europe Unfulfilled promises The quicker the better The man-made emissions of sulphur dioxide are now almost two-thirds less in Europe than they were in 1980, with a consequent steady improvement in air quality. The depositions of sulphur are now also much lower - having fallen along with the emissions. The acidification of soil and water nevertheless remains a serious problem. There are several reasons for this, the main one being that depositions are still exceeding nature's ability in many places to neutralize the additions of acid. In other words, there is an exceeding of the critical load. As long as that goes on, so will the process of acidification. Then, too, there are the depositions of nitrogen compounds - coming from the emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia, which also contribute to acidification - and the emissions of these have not declined to anything like the same extent as those of sulphur. Recovery is also delayed by the fact that the soil has accumulated great amounts of sulphur as a result of many decades of heavy depositions, and research has now shown that it will take many more decades to get back to normal. It will take still longer, too, for the soil to regain its quantum of easily available base cations that are essential nutrients for trees and plants generally, but have been "washed out" of the soil in the process of acidification. The supply of these cations is dependent mainly on the rock's rate of weathering, which is slow in Scandinavia, where the bedrock consists mainly of gneiss and granite, which do not weather easily. Thus, despite the reduced depositions, sulphur (in the form of sulphate) and hydrogen ions continue to leak out of the soil, delaying in turn the recovery of freshwaters. In order to maintain life in some 8000 lakes and a number of streams, Sweden spends a good 200m kronor a year (22m euros) on liming. (Of the 90,000 or so lakes in Sweden, about 20,000 are deemed to be markedly affected by acidification.) Of late, too, liming and so-called vitality fertilization has been carried out on a limited scale on forest soils. While liming is known to be necessary for the maintenance of life in surface waters, treatment of forest soils is thought likely to help hasten recovery. But chemical treatment of this kind - no matter how necessary - misses the basic cause of acidification, and is definitely no alternative to reducing the emissions of the pollutants that cause it. It must be obvious that the sooner we can bring about a reduction of these emissions to the level where acidifying depositions no longer exceed what nature can withstand, the less will be the damage from acidification and the quicker the recovery. Maximum emission levels for 2010 have been set down for the EU in the recently adopted directive on national ceilings for emissions (the so-called NEC directive). Strong opposition from several of the member countries has meant however that the ceilings came to be set so high that not even the interim environmental targets for 2010 will be met. There will nevertheless be possibilities for improvement when the directive comes up for review in 2004, 2008, and 2012. On the insistence of environmentalists and the European Parliament, it now says in the directive that at times of review proposals can be made for possible further reductions of emissions, with the aim both of attaining the interim environmental objectives by 2010, and of meeting the long-term ones by 2020. The least that can now be asked is that the long-term aim of "no exceedance of critical loads and levels by 2020" should be adhered to. But there is every reason, too, to strive for a more rapid achievement of that aim. Christer Ågren At last getting somewhere Binding ceilings for each country's emissions, extension of rules for large combustion plants. On July 3 the conciliation delegation of the European Parliament accepted the compromise texts of two new directives for air quality that had been arrived at in negotiation in June with representatives of the Council of Ministers. One was that setting national emission ceilings for various air pollutants, the other to control emissions from large combustion plants (LCPs). They are expected to take effect shortly after the conciliation texts have been formally accepted both by the Council and Parliament, which should be this autumn, probably in September. In general it can be said that although the Parliament had succeeded at least to some extent in making improvements over the Council's common position of June 2000, especially in regard to the requirements for LCPs, the Council managed to ward off all of the Parliament's more thoroughgoing proposals. The compromise texts have therefore come largely to reflect the attitude of the Council, where the southern European members, together with the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Finland, were most strongly opposed to any further tightening up of the emission requirements. National ceilings The aim of this directive is to put limits to the member countries' emissions of the four air pollutants - sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and ammonia - that contribute most conspicuously to acidification, the formation of ozone, and eutrophication. To that end it sets ceilings for each country to the emissions of each of these pollutants, for attainment by 2010. The eventual ceilings were no more than those agreed upon within the Council in June a year ago (see Table 1). Thus nothing has come of the Parliament's efforts to get them made lower (AN 2/01). At least not this time. But it also says in the directive that there is to be a first review in 2004, when the Commission will be able to propose further measures, such as a lowering of the ceilings. The Commission has moreover also been enjoined, in preparation for the reviews in 2004 and 2008, to look into the possibilities of attaining the long-term aims for improvement of environmental quality by 2020, which are: no exceeding of critical loads, and the effective protection of all people against recognized health risks from air pollution. There is also a new section in the directive entailing the Commission to investigate and report on the extent to which international shipping and air traffic contribute to acidification, eutrophication, and the formation of ground-level ozone. A report on shipping is to be ready by 2002, that on air traffic by 2004. Each is to specify a program of action to reduce emissions from the sector concerned. Large Combustion Plants The aim of this directive is to reduce the emissions of specified air pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and dust) from large combustion plants - that is, those with a rated thermal capacity of at least 50 MW - chiefly by setting emission limit values (ELVs) for the pollutants in question. The limit values will vary according to the age and capacity of the plants, as well as the type of fuel they burn. The new LCP directive will replace the existing one from 1988 (Dir.88/609/EEC). It has largely been due to the Parliament's efforts that the terms of the new directive are not restricted to new plants - that is, those built after 2003. (Table 2). Existing plants can be separated into two categories: those built before 1988 (the ones so far called "existing"), and those built from 1988 up to 2003 (now "new" plants). For the latter the ELVs in directive 88/609/EEC have applied since 1988. The new directive will not only mean a tightening-up of the requirements for "new" plants, but also the introduction of ELVs for "existing" ones. See Table 3. In the case of the latter there are however several loopholes. One is that permitting the member countries to devise plans for a national reduction of emissions, which will ensure the same emissions total as applying ELVs for individual plants would have done. Emission "bubbles." It will also be possible to avoid ELVs for plants that are not going to be operated for more than 20,000 hours after January 1, 2008. "Relaxed" ELVs are to be allowed for peak-load plants that will be operated for less than 2000 hours annually from 2008 and 1500 hours onwards from 2016. The Parliament tried both to get the ELVs lowered and to eliminate or at least circumscribe the loopholes, but with limited success. However, during the review of the directive in 2004, the Commission is to consider whether it will be necessary and possible to lower the ELVs and close the loopholes. By providing, for example, a stimulant to combined heat-and-power production - thus making for an increase in energy efficiency, with a consequent reduction of emissions - the new directive will bring other environmental gains. Stricter rules for the measurement and reporting of emissions will moreover assist the production of more detailed and better analyses for the reviews. The acceptance and application of these new directives will mean that the EU can, through its own legislation, now meet the ceilings set in 1999 in the Gothenburg protocol under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. In other words, a green light, both for the EU and the member countries that have not yet done so to ratify that protocol. A remaining matter will be the ceilings that will have to be put into the NEC directive as new members from Central and Eastern Europe are admitted to the EU. Although it might seem simplest merely to take the ceilings those countries already have under the Gothenburg protocol, the Commission's analyses have shown that they are totally inadequate for meeting even the interim requirements for 2010, not to mention for dealing with the long-term problems. Christer Ågren Table 1. The national ceilings for 2010 in the NEC directive. The figures for 1990 are the latest reported by each country to the LRTAP Convention. 000 tons per year.
Table 2. Emission limit values for SO2 and NOx from plants to be built after 2003 (mg/m3).
Table 3. Emission limit values to be applied from January 1, 2008 for SO2 and NOx from existing plants (built before 2003). Plant size in MWth and emission limits in mg/m3.
Something has now been set going Despite omissions, new strategy nevertheless incorporates many of the initial aims. At the EU summit in Gothenburg last June, the political leaders of the member countries agreed on a strategy for sustainable development. Expectations in regard to the outcome of the meeting had been high, partly because it seemed that environmental matters were at last to find a place at the top political level, but also because the Commission's draft proposal was generally regarded - by environmentalists too - as an exceptionally promising document. The proposal had been presented in the form of a so-called communication about a month in advance of the Gothenburg meeting.1 It laid down, for instance, that "all policies must have sustainable development as their core concern," pointing in particular to six problem areas that the Commission considered to be posing "severe or irreversible threats to the future well-being of European society," with especial emphasis on climate change, public health, resource management, and transport-related issues. One of the reasons why the Commission's document was so warmly welcomed was that it contained an unusual number of clearly defined aims, as well as proposals for action within a definite time limit - in stark contrast to its ideas for a sixth environmental action plan that had been released earlier in the spring and been heavily criticized - precisely on account of its lack of clear aims and clear proposals for achieving them. Here are some of the items in the Commission's proposal for a strategy for sustainable development. As regards emissions of greenhouse gases, the Commission considers the Kyoto protocol as no more than a first step, saying that a more long-term aim should be to reduce them by 20 per cent from 1990 to 2020. To achieve that it would employ taxes on energy aimed at ensuring "full internalization of external costs," phase out subsidies to the production and consumption of fossil fuels, and introduce measures to bring down the demand for energy. As means of dealing with problems relating to transportation, the Commission would decouple its growth from that of GDP (gross domestic product), and institute action to bring about a shift from road use to rail, water, and public passenger transportation. Such aims as well as others should be achieved by means of a charging system so arranged that by 2005 at the latest the prices for all the various modes of transportation, including airplane, should reflect the costs to society. It soon became evident at Gothenburg that the member countries were far from prepared to accept the Commission's proposals. The strategy that was eventually adopted certainly did incorporate many of the broader aims of the original, but almost all of the more radical and more definite ones were either dropped or distinctly weakened. The proposal to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 per cent by 2020 was, for instance, omitted altogether. But at least something has now been set going, and as from next year the strategy that has now been launched is to be reviewed at every spring summit of the EU leaders. Christer Ågren 1 A sustainable Europe for a better world: A European Union strategy for sustainable development. (COM(2001)264) 15 May 2001. The full text is on http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/eussd/index.htm and the Council conclusions (in all official EU languages) at www.eu2001.se/static/se/eusummit/conclusions.asp Further: The comments of the environment watchers EEB and T&E - on the Commission's communication as well as on the Council's final document - can be seen as press releases on their respective websites: www.eeb.org and www.t-e.nu.
Differences on directive still need sorting out At a second reading on June 13 the European Parliament passed a report containing proposals intended to tighten up the new directive on air-quality standards for ground-level ozone. The members gave full support to the proposals put forward by the rapporteur, the Liberal MEP Chris Davies from the UK. Parliament will thus be demanding that the maximum number of days on which ozone levels can be allowed to exceed the World Health Organization's recommended limit value of 120 micrograms/m3 should be 20 instead of the 25 days agreed by the Council, with 2010 as the final date for implementation. Again, as at the first reading, the parliament is calling for the inclusion of a definite date (2020) for attainment of the long-term aim of a complete stop to any exceeding of the limit value recommended by the WHO - a demand that the Council had rejected. The Parliament also wanted the implementation of the terms of the directive to be more binding than the member countries are proposing. It would try to ensure that by substituting "to be achieved save where physically impossible" for the more vague "to be achieved as far as possible." The proposed new wording is a concession to the Mediterranean countries, who claim that the peculiarities of their climate are a cause of high ozone levels. The text in any case represents a clear watering-down compared with the Parliament's first version, requiring the limit values to be binding without exception. Among the other changes is a proposal that the member countries should be obliged to report, with an explanation, any exceeding of the target value, as well as having in general to report more precisely. While welcoming this outcome, the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) expressed in a press release some disappointment at the Parliament's rejection of amendments seeking to improve the dissemination of information to the public, as well as at others assessing the reduction potential of short-term plans. The Council is to decide within four months whether the Parliament's proposals can be accepted by the member countries. Since most of the proposals that were put forward at the first reading, and were rejected by the Council still remain, resort will probably now have to be made to the conciliation process. Christer Ågren Potential for twice the Kyoto reductions In March last year the Commission started the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) to see which would be the most cost-effective ways for the EU to fulfill its undertakings under the Kyoto protocol to cut down emissions of greenhouse gases. Included in the seven groups appointed for the purpose were representatives of industry and NGOs as well as of the member states. After having considered 40 possible measures, the Commission has come to the conclusion that it would be cost-effectively possible to achieve twice the reductions required of the EU in the protocol: between 664 and 765 million tons of CO2 equivalents instead of 336 million. Measures were considered to be cost-effective if the outlay was less than 20 euros per ton of CO2eq. In the report that has now been issued distinction is made between measures that are "at an advanced stage of preparation," those that are "in the pipeline" and others for which more work is needed. In the first category are eight measures that are estimated to be cost-effectively capable of doing away with some 240 million tons of CO2 equivalents. The proposed measures include a framework directive for an EU emissions-trading scheme, besides directives on the energy performance of buildings, on biofuels, and energy-efficient public procurement. Eleven measures in the pipeline category are estimated to have a potential for the cost-effective reduction of a further 140 million tons of CO2 equivalents. Among them are directives on combined heat and power, minimum efficiency standards for electrical equipment, and a revision of the IPPC directive (integrated pollution prevention and control), besides a proposal for rules concerning technology procurement. The measures considered to be in need of further work concern among other things the promotion of heat production from renewable energy sources, long-term agreements with energy-intensive industries, fiscal measures for passenger cars, a voluntary agreement with the car makers regarding light commercial vehicles, and further technological improvements for vehicles and fuels. In the Commission's view the ECCP findings coincide well with those of a group of consultants, whose report Economic Evaluation of Sectoral Emission Reduction Objectives for Climate Change was presented in May. There the cost of achieving the Kyoto goals was put at 3.4 billion euros a year, or 0.6 per cent of the EU's collective GDP. The ECCP work will be brought to a head this autumn with a strategic document from the Commission, followed by concrete proposals which will be submitted to the Council and the European Parliament. The ECCP report can be downloaded at http://europa.eu.comm/environment/climat/eccp.htm. The six greenhouse gases in the Kyoto protocol have different potentials for climate warming. In order to be comparable they are therefore all expressed in CO2 equivalents. The conversion factors have been laid down by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Wide range in real cost of generation The price of electricity made from the burning of coal and oil would have to be doubled if it were to include the costs of damage to the environment and health. If generated from gas it would be 30 per cent more. The aim of the EU research program EXTERNE, from which those findings have come, has been to assess the external costs associated with the use of electricity - costs that are there, but are not included in the price. They may refer for instance to the effects on health of pollutants emitted to the air in the generation of electricity. Some twenty separate research projects have been going on under the program. Studies made in twelve EU countries have shown electricity generated from hard coal, lignite, and oil to have by far the greatest external costs - averaging 5.7 cents (euro) per kilowatt-hour as against an accepted generating cost of around 4 cents. Second comes peat, with 3.5 cents in external costs (although only two studies were made in this case). The external costs relating to the burning of natural gas are much lower, amounting on an average from twelve studies to 1.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. Still lower are the external costs of generation from renewable sources. At 0.1 cent/kWh windpower is easily the best, followed by hydropower (just over 0.4 cents), photovoltaic solar (0.6), and biomass burning (1.4). Nuclear power also comes out with a relatively low average, just under 0.4 cents, which is explained in the study by its low influence on global warming and the low probability of accidents in EU nuclear plants. The estimates take into account a wide range of externalities, among them being public health, global warming, occupational health, and damage to materials. Ignoring the climate factor because of the greater uncertainty of cost allocation, the Commission assesses the overall external costs from the generation of electricity at 1-2 per cent of the EU's gross domestic product (GDP). Applying the same model to road transportation would seem to add the equivalent of another 1-2 per cent of GDP. Sources: Environment Daily, July 23, 2001. European Commission, July 20, 2001. Call for a reduction Unprofitable coal mining continues to be subsidized in the EU countries at a rate of 2 billion euros a year - mainly in Germany and Spain, but also in France and the UK. The EU Commission is now out to get these subsidies reduced. Next summer the present rules for state subsidies to the coal industry will lapse, together with the European Coal and Steel Treaty. As from 2008 the Commission only wants the production capacity necessary for securing EU energy needs to be eligible for state support. No scale has yet been set for the subsidies that will be allowable after 2007. Coal production is however expected to be considerably lower than it is now, since - as the Commission puts it - most EU coal "cannot and will not be able to compete with imports from third countries." Only in the UK is there a non-subsidized coal industry of any size. Coal output in the EU amounted to 85 million tons in 2000, as against 268 million in 1975. Two of the candidate countries, Poland and the Czech Republic, produce considerable quantities of coal; in 1999 it was 112 and 14 million tons. The Commission's urging is fully in line with repeated high-level calls for a reduction of environmentally damaging subsidies, although it doesn't actually say so. Sources: Environment Daily, July 30, 2001. European Commission press release July 25, 2001. Not so good they might be Although environmental taxes are now being employed to a widespread and increasing extent in the EU, low rates and numerous exemptions have meant that the effects on the environment have for the most part been little. According to a study1 of such taxes omitting those related to energy, published by the European Commission, they have often been introduced independently of any others, and rather for the purpose of increasing revenue than of affecting production and consumption. They have however been incorporated in a wider strategy in three countries: Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. Named as a successful example of the employment of fiscal instruments is the Swedish charge on emissions of nitrogen oxides from combustion plants, which brought a reduction of those emissions by 40 per cent per unit of energy in the six years to 1998. The authors say that in future more taxes with a direct
incentive effect should be introduced. They also recommend more "dynamic" cost-benefit assessments of proposed taxes, suggesting that
this will also justify fewer exemptions. Environmental Signals Once again the EU environmental agency, EEA, has published a report1 on developments within its sphere, using so-called indicators to see how far progress is being made in the direction of sustainability. Here are some of the outstanding findings:
There are no new figures in the present EEA report for greenhouse gases. According to one of its earlier reports (that of last March) the emissions of the six gases of the Kyoto protocol were down by 4 per cent from 1990 to 1999 (see AN 2/01). Now the EEA says that it is still striving to find better indicators, and that the next step, after agreement on them has been reached, will be for policy makers to apply them to quantitative goals. In his introduction to the report the agency's executive director, Domingo Jiménez-Beltrán, draws a parallel to the convergence criteria for the EU's economic and monetary union (EMU), which quickly made it possible to change the member countries from separate entities to parts of "Euroland," with a common currency. Applying similar criteria in the case of sustainable development would, in his view, markedly hasten progress in respect of the environment. Per Elvingson
Small petrol engines The Commission's proposal for a flexible introduction of new exhaust standards for small petrol-engined machines has been turned down by the Parliament's environment committee. This is a matter of machines such as lawn mowers, generators, and chain saws, which together emit large amounts of volatile hydrocarbons. The Commission was proposing standards on US lines, by which manufacturers could continue to sell engines that fail to meet the requirements, provided they compensate that with other engines that meet them with a wide margin. It would also have allowed trading in emission permits. The Parliament's environment committee found the idea unacceptable, as being incompatible with clear consumer information, discriminating against small manufacturers and generally being difficult to administer and control. The Commission's proposal will be debated by Parliament in plenum at the end of September.
Pleasure craft The environmentalist Seas at Risk organization calculates, on the basis of a study made by the Dutch research institute TNO,1 that under the proposed Recreational Craft Directive, pleasure boats would be allowed to emit ten times the amounts of pollutant now permitted to motorcycles and similar road vehicles. The best way of reducing emissions from pleasure crafts would, it says, be to switch over from two-stroke to four-stroke engines. The latter should moreover be equipped for exhaust cleaning in the same way as road vehicles. No calls for improving the environmental performance of small-craft engines were heard at the first reading of the proposed directive in the European Parliament last July. The matter is scheduled to be taken up at the next meeting of the Council of Ministers in October. 1 Water pollution by recreational boat engines. TNO research institute Delft, Netherlands. Available at www.waterpakt.nl
Claiming progress Announcing an average reduction of 3 per cent in the emissions of carbon dioxide from new cars in the EU from 1999 to 2000, the European car makers claim, through their trade association ACEA, to be well on the way to fulfilling their promise to the European Commission to have them reduced by 25 per cent between 1995 and 2008 (from 186 g CO2 per km, on an average, to 140 grams). The association gives more engines with direct injection, especially diesels, as the main reason for the present progress. Environment Daily. May 30, 2001.
To make cleaner cities The European Commission has selected fourteen cities out of seventy-four applicants to take part in a research and development program, Civitas, to make for clean urban transportation. Those chosen are Aalborg, Barcelona, Berlin, Bremen, Bristol, Cork, Gothenburg, Graz, Lille, Nantes, Rome, Rotterdam, Stockholm, and Winchester - with the parallel participation of five cities in the candidate countries: Bucharest, Gdynia, Kaunas, Pecs, and Prague. The participants in this project are to combat congestion and pollution through the application of technologies and measures that will make energy a part of urban transportation policy, in particular by promoting energy efficiency and the use of "clean" fuels. The aim is to make for the development of attractive alternatives to the use of private cars in cities. The EU will provide 35 per cent of the money for the projects and the cities the rest. More information on the cities in question, and the types of measures they will adopt, can be found at http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_transport/en/cut_en/
More money for NGOs The Commission has proposed a big rise in EU funding for
environmentalist groups. This would mean increasing EU support for green NGOs
from the present 2.65m euros a year to 6.4m next year. Groups in eastern
European countries would also be eligible for funding.
Call to action
Incompatible aims As Friends of the Earth and the CEE Bankwatch Network have pointed out in a recent report, some of the aid the EU is giving to candidate countries in Eastern and Central Europe runs contrary to the EU countries' own aims for sustainable development. There are examples of this in the agricultural and transportation sectors, where pre-accession funds are often earmarked for the support of industrialized agricultural production and expansion of the Trans-European Network, which means mostly road building. Such priorities obviously lead to practices that are generally recognized as unsustainable - to intensive agriculture and dependence on cars. Billions for Sustainability? II can be downloaded from www.bankwatch.org
Will that be allowed? Hungary, Estonia, and the Czech Republic had finished off all the environmental aspects of negotiations for admission to the EU by the end of May, and were followed by Lithuania in June. The big problem was, as expected, the directive on treatment of wastewater, making it necessary to allow the longest transition periods - until 2010 for Estonia, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, and 2015 for Hungary. Hungary has moreover been allowed to delay implementation of the directive on large combustion plants until the end of 2004, and Estonia and Lithuania to 2006 and 2008 for emissions of volatile organic compounds from petrol distribution. There is now a possibility that the European Parliament, which has wanted to restrict the transition periods to five years at the most, will put in a veto. Better than it might have been At a meeting in Bonn, Germany, this last July, an agreement was reached as to how the climate protocol, signed in Kyoto in 1997, was to be interpreted. Although much weaker than intended, it is now considered capable of becoming effective even without the adherence of the United States. In Kyoto the industrialized countries undertook to have reduced their emissions of gases affecting the climate on an average by 5.2 per cent by 2012, from the levels prevailing in 1990. But to arrive at any agreement at all, it was necessary to leave several important matters unresolved. In Bonn, however, after almost four years of negotiating, solutions could be found. Carbon sinks Among the most difficult issues was the amount of credit any developed country could be allowed in attainment of its Kyoto target through the use of sinks - activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere. It was agreed that re-vegetation and the management of forests, crop and grazing lands would be among the eligible activities. By the use of a formula, quotas for forest sinks were set for each country. In most cases the sinks can only be used to offset a small part of the reductions that would otherwise have to be made - although Canada and Japan was given liberal allowances in order to get their agreement. To the dismay of the EU countries, no agreement could be reached on ceilings to the amount of agricultural activity that could be reckoned in the sink. Clean Development Mechanism Rules were also adopted in regard to the Clean Development Mechanism, by which developed countries can invest in climate-friendly projects in less developed ones and receive credit for the emissions so avoided. Energy efficiency, renewable energy, and forest sinks are specified as projects that can qualify for use in this mechanism. Trading and JI Rules were set, too, for the international emissions-trading regime, by which developed countries can buy and sell emissions credits between themselves, and for Joint Implementation, enabling OECD countries to gain credit from investing in projects in countries with economies in transition. The EU countries could get no agreement to their wish for a ceiling on the extent to which any country could fulfill its quota through the use of the trading, JI, and CDM mechanisms. All that was said was that the mechanisms should be "supplemental to domestic action" and that domestic action should constitute "a significant element to the effort made by each Party." They did however succeed in prohibiting the inclusion of nuclear power in JI and CDM projects. Compliance Under a compliance mechanism, any country will, during the second period of the protocol, starting in 2013, have to eliminate an extra 1.3 tons for every ton of gas emitted beyond its target during the first period. Countries that overrun their targets must set up plans for compliance that give priority to domestic action for reducing emissions. No country will have any right to sell or transfer emissions certificates before it has regained compliance. The EU countries regard this part of the agreement not only as essential for the credibility of the protocol, but also as a condition for the proper functioning of trading in emission permits. Funding Industrialized countries have pledged the provision of "predictable and adequate funding" to mitigate the effects of climate change in poorer countries. In a separate political declaration the EU, Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland said they would provide 450 million euros annually for the funds (there will be three new ones) by 2005, with a review in 2008. Japan agreed to increase its present contribution. The unanimity in Bonn does not mean that the protocol will now become automatically effective. There will first have to be ratification in at least 55 countries, as well as by so many Annex I countries as will account for at least 55 per cent of that group's emissions in 1990. Since the US, which was emitting a good third of these countries' emissions in 1990, has stayed outside the agreement, it will be necessary to have the ratification of almost all the other Annex I countries for the protocol to come into force. It remains to be seen what the effect of sinks and flexible mechanisms will be on the measures taken by individual countries. It seems likely that the actual reduction of emissions over twenty years by the countries in question will be 2 per cent, not 5.2 as originally agreed, mainly because of the extra leeway provided by the sinks. According to estimates made by Greenpeace, emissions may even show a slight increase. Although the commitments now made are obviously very modest in comparison with what will probably have to be done, they do nevertheless represent a breakthrough. By 2010 the emissions from the countries concerned would otherwise have been 25 per cent over 1990 levels, according to these countries own energy scenarios. The reactions to the Bonn agreement have consequently been for the most part positive, even from environmentalist groups. The general attitude is that it is better to have a weak agreement that allows for improvement than no agreement at all. A collapse in Bonn, with several countries withdrawing from the process, would have meant having to start negotiations all over again. The Belgian minister for energy, Olivier Deleuze, head of the EU delegation, probably spoke for many other delegates when he said: "I prefer an imperfect, living agreement to a perfect one that doesn't exist." Several commentators have moreover observed (with address to President Bush and the US) that the agreement constitutes a victory for the multinational negotiating process. The EU representatives expressed the hope that it would encourage the American administration to reconsider its decision not to ratify. Per Elvingson No damage seen to the US economy The reason President Bush gave for not signing the Kyoto protocol was that reducing emissions by 7 per cent would harm the American economy. But according to WWF, the World Wildlife Fund, the effect could be just the opposite.1 The US could meet its obligations to reduce greenhouse gases under the treaty and yet save $50 billion annually by 2010, and something like $135 billion by 2020. "Far from being the economically crippling burden that the Bush Administration alleges, US efforts to reach a binding emissions reduction target could initiate a national technological and economic renaissance with cleaner energy, industrial processes and products in the coming decades," said Jennifer Morgan, director of the WWF climate change campaign. Using US Department of Energy models for policy analysis, the WWF report combines domestic policies and measures with some of the flexibility mechanisms that will be available to countries that ratify the protocol, to assess the cost to the US economy. New standards for domestic appliances, auctioning of carbon emission permits, improved fuel economy in passenger vehicles, co-generation of heat and power, minimum standards for the production of renewable energy, increased use of high-speed rail, with other measures, would enable the US to reduce its energy consumption by 11 per cent by 2010 and 30 per cent by 2020. By 2010 carbon emissions would have dropped to no more than 2.5 per cent above 1990 levels, and be well below them by 2020. The rest of the Kyoto quota could be met by reductions of other greenhouse gases and by taking advantage to some extent of the Kyoto market mechanisms. If the US does nothing, its carbon emissions will have risen by 35 per cent by 2010, according to the report. Among the proposed measures is the development and use of new technologies, which would "enhance the standing of the United States as a supplier of innovative and environmentally superior technologies and practices." By 2020 the cumulative net saving resulting from putting
together all the costs and savings of the proposed polices would, in the WWF's
estimate, be $105 billion, and approximately $576 billion in 2020. A 50-per-cent
reduction of sulphur emissions by 2010 compared to base case, or 68 per cent
below 1990 levels, as well as a decrease in fine particles and emissions of
nitrogen oxides, VOCs, and mercury, would be among the additional benefits. More dangerous than thought Exhaust from diesel engines has been found to account for 78 per cent of the total extra risk of cancer from all hazardous pollutants in the outdoor air in the United States, from a new analysis1 based on data from the US Environmental Protection Agency. The massive EPA study here in question gives detailed estimates of the levels of 41 most hazardous air pollutants in every US community. A previous version had not included anything on emissions of diesel particulate. "The bad news is that cancer risks from air toxics are much higher than the public has been told of. The good news is that a great deal of the air toxics problem can be addressed by focusing on just this one pollutant. Cutting diesel exhaust has to be priority number one for everyone concerned about the health of our air," was the comment of David Roe, senior attorney for Environmental Defense. That so much of the effect should be due to diesel emissions is considered surprising. In a supposedly clean city such as San Francisco, for instance, the risk level is 2600 additional cases of cancer per million, with 90 per cent of the risk coming from diesel emissions. The target for air toxics in the Clean Air Act is a maximum of one additional case per million. The emissions come both from diesel vehicles on the roads, such as buses and trucks, and from offroad equipment such as bulldozers and heavy construction machinery. "Offroad diesel equipment is a big part of the problem that most people don't realize and is long overdue for emission controls," Roe says. 1 By Environmental Defense. The
information above is based on its press release of July 12, 2001, on www.environmentaldefense.org. New proposal in the Netherlands All vehicles will have to pay a kilometre tax for driving on the main roads in the Netherlands, according to a transport and mobility plan for the next twenty years which was presented by the government in May. The tax would be differentiated in line with the actual degree of congestion on the roads to be travelled and the environmental characteristics of the vehicles. The primary aim apart from reducing congestion is to cut down on noise and emissions of carbon dioxide. Already in l998 the parties forming the coalition government had agreed that a system for congestion charging should be tried out during their mandate period, but because of pressure from the automobile association and the right-wing liberal party, the government decided first to water down the proposal, and then to abandon it altogether. The current revival of the idea of a kilometre tax can be ascribed, according to Ton Sledsens of the Dutch Society for Nature and Environment (SNM) in part to the getting together of SNM, the Dutch Motorists' Association, the employers' organizations, and the trade unions. Says Ton Sledsens: "The fact that these diverse bodies can agree, and the ministry of transport can give the idea a prominent place in a long-term plan, shows there to be increasing awareness that road pricing makes economic as well as environmental sense." A study commissioned by SNM has shown an advanced scheme of differentiated road pricing to be technically feasible and capable of introduction by 2008. It would involve abolishing the present annual vehicle tax and changing the purchase tax on new cars to one based on fuel consumption. The total revenue from the taxation of road vehicles would thereby remain unchanged. It appears from the study that considerable benefits could be expected, with some variation depending on the manner in which the system comes to be formed. The use of energy - and so the emissions of carbon dioxide - could decrease by 20-40 per cent, the emissions of nitrogen oxides by 40-50 per cent, and of particles (PM10) by 50-70 per cent. The number of people affected by noise, as well as that of road casualties, could fall by 20 per cent, all in comparison with a reference scenario omitting the effects of road pricing. Congestion could be expected to fade considerably, although just how much will depend on such things as the way the charges are differentiated for time of day and stretch of road, as well as the ability of drivers to absorb this information. While overall mobility would show only a slight decrease, car-based mobility would fall off much more, in relation to the expected growth figures. Charging for road use is not only likely to lead to more walking and cycling, and greater use of public transportation, but also to a higher rate of car occupancy. Better utilization both of roads and vehicles will mean that the transportation system as whole will become more efficient and more sustainable. That is what appears from the SNM study. From the Dutch ministry of transport comes the word that although the government's proposal for road pricing is as yet incomplete, the aim is still to have it ready for putting before parliament this autumn. Per Elvingson
Warning against spread of the American pattern Sprawling urban development is helping to make road transportation the fastest-growing source of carbon dioxide emissions. As people move ever further out into the suburbs and even beyond, it becomes ever more difficult to provide public transportation, and with longer distances from home to work, shops, and leisure activities, fewer than ever are walking or cycling. The result is more and longer car trips - leading in turn to more accidents, more noise, and more air pollution. Noting all this in a recent report,1 the Worldwatch Institute goes on to point out that by the end of the decade a majority of the world's inhabitants will be living in urban areas. The decisions for urban design that are being made today, especially in cities in the developing world where car use is still low, will enormously affect global warming in the years ahead. The consequences would be disastrous if the US pattern of dependency on the car were to be followed in these places too. Thirty years from now, China for example, excluding Hong Kong, is expected to have 752 million urban dwellers. If each were to copy the transportation habits of the average resident of the San Francisco area as they were in 1990, the annual emissions of carbon from transportation in urban China alone could exceed 1 billion tons - or about as much as was released from all the road transportation in the world in 1998. "The United States has the world's most car-reliant cities," observes Molly O'Meara Sheehan, the author of the report, continuing: "US drivers consume roughly 43 per cent of the world's gasoline to propel less than 5 per cent of the world's population." Sheehan gives a number of examples of what can and might be done, one that is particularly outstanding being the city of Curitiba in Brazil. Starting in 1972, it has built a system of dedicated busways, with zoning for higher-density development along those thoroughfares. Its 2.5 million people are now enjoying more parks and better quality of air. Recently Bogota, the Colombian capital, has followed suit with a similar bus system. It has also extended its network of cycle paths and experimented with a car-free day in the middle of the work week. Even without cars, this city of 6.8 million has gone on functioning normally. Bogota's story also illustrates the importance of higher population density to support buses and cycling: if Bogota had sprawled like a typical American city, it would cover more than twenty times as much land area as it does today. Copenhagen is also mentioned as a good example, for its commitment to bicycle lanes and pedestrian walks, as well for attempts to confine housing development as far as possible to five corridors along bus and train routes. Another is Portland, Oregon, USA, which is commended for setting an outer limit to city expansion, with a consequent increase in urban building density. The increased attention to light rail and other forms of public transport is regarded by Sheehan as a sign that people want to see a more sustainable development of their cities. A surge in light-rail construction had, by 2000, brought the total number of such systems in western Europe to more than a hundred, the highest since 1970. In the US, after decades of decline, the use of public transportation has increased over five consecutive years. Planners in Portland, Oregon, estimate that a new light-rail line there has made it possible to avoid building eight new parking garages in the region and adding two extra lanes to major highways. 1 Putting the Brakes on Sprawl. Worldwatch Paper 156. By Molly O'Meara Sheehan. June 2001. 85 pp. US$5.00. Available from Worldwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA. Internet: www.worldwatch.org. Guidelines for sustainability To try and decide what sort of transportation system would be environmentally sustainable, and how it could best be attained, the OECD has let a group of experts from nine countries examine the situation and propose guidelines for action in a project called EST, standing for Environmentally Sustainable Transport. The project came to a head at an international conference held in Vienna, Austria, last October. The background to it all, together with the resulting conclusions and a list noteworthy local projects, has been set forth in a so-called synthesis report. The group working on EST has produced massive evidence of the unsustainability of present trends in transportation should they be allowed to continue. In order to outline how EST could be attained, they have used a method known as backcasting - which, instead of proceeding from the present situation and seeing what measures would be needed to correct it, they start from what would be a desirable state of affairs in 2030 and then work backwards to find out what must be done to arrive at it. To make matters quite clear the group has set a number of quantifiable parameters, such as reductions of 80 per cent for carbon dioxide and 90 per cent for nitrogen oxides, from levels occurring in 1990. A critical parameter turned out to be the emissions of carbon dioxide - since measures to reduce them would also contribute to the achievement of good air quality. But even if the transportation system would be totally non-fossil and clean problems such as noise and the need for land could remain, so those they call for special measures to be solved. Case studies showed that less than half of the changes needed to achieve the goal for carbon dioxide could be brought about by technical measures. If that goal is to be reached it will also be necessary to reduce road traffic generally, say, by making towns more compact and producing more things locally, loading vehicles more fully, downsizing cars, and making modal shifts - from road to rail, from private cars to public transport, cycling, and so forth. The report emphasizes the importance of impressing on people the advantages of EST in providing greater mobility in | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
