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No. 3, September 2005.
Cover story: Tougher stance on particulates. © Lars-Erik Håkansson Main articles in brief Tougher stance on particulates Significantly tighter limits on particulate emissions from diesel cars are the only marked stiffening of EU emission rules for passenger cars in the draft proposal sent out for consultation by the EU Commission. The thematic strategy on air pollution was suspended at the last minute after complaints by industry interests. In 2003 the emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU15 were only 1.7 per cent lower than in the base year. Low-emission future within reach The EU could reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 40 per cent between 1990 and 2030 at a very low cost. The aviation industry is once again growing fast, and the industry's contribution to climate change is high on the European political agenda. Not only good for the environment Energy efficiency is not only good for the environment: Economic growth, more jobs and better security of supply are highlighted in a recent green paper. Stricter emission standards to be studied In July the UN body that regulates shipping across the world agreed to review and potentially tighten air pollution standards for the world's shipping fleet. Climate threat increasingly clear Serious effects start to become widespread with just a two-degree rise in global mean temperature. European emissions of sulphur and NOx from land-based sources are falling slightly. But the reductions on land are countered by rising emissions from international shipping. Stronger standards recommended in the US The conclusion of an EPA final staff paper is that the latest scientific information supports strengthening the current health-based standards for fine particulates. Fact sheet: Renewable energy in the European Union Get on with it! In the EU some 370,000 people die each year from breathing contaminated air. This means that the toll of air pollution, much of which comes from cars and trucks, is more than seven times greater than the number of deaths from road accidents. More than 90 per cent - nearly 350,000 - of these premature deaths are caused by fine particulates (PM), the remaining 21,000 by ground-level ozone. To these should be added a large number of morbidity effects that affect a much greater number of people. For example, the current levels of PM are estimated to be responsible for around 100,000 cases of respiratory or cardiac hospital admissions, 30 million respiratory medication use days and several hundred million restricted activity days each year. Expressed differently, PM alone is shortening the life of an "average" EU citizen by more than eight months. Because air pollution levels vary, this figure varies between countries. Lost life expectancy is worst in Belgium, where on average people lose 13.2 months of life, and the Netherlands, at 11.8 months. Other countries with high figures are Hungary (10.6), Poland (9.6), Germany (9.2) and Italy (9.0). The Finns are the least affected, losing 2.6 months on average, followed by the Swedes at 3.5 months. The figures above come from studies prepared under the European Commission's Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme. The outcome of this four-year programme provides the backbone for the thematic strategy on air pollution, which was scheduled for adoption by the Commission before the summer, but is now expected by September (see p. 5). The CAFE programme has produced some alarming figures - not only regarding health impacts, but also the environmental damage caused by air pollution. It has also clearly demonstrated that the benefits of taking additional action to further reduce air pollutant emissions by far outweigh the costs. A recent Eurobarometer survey showed that the EU citizens rank air pollution among the most important environmental concerns. Moreover, the majority of people responding to the Commission's internet consultation for the thematic strategy on air pollution wanted a very high level of ambition for air quality. More than two-thirds considered one should spend substantial funds to increase life expectancy and even more (84 per cent) thought substantial funds should be spent to reduce risks to the environment. Against this background it is impossible to understand the motives of those individuals in the European Commission who attempted to block the air pollution strategy in summer. After all, the evidence clearly suggests that the EU's credibility, and hence support from EU citizens, would be boosted by a farsighted environmental policy. In the case of air pollutants the goal must be to achieve as quickly as possible the long-term objectives laid down in the Sixth Environmental Action Programme (6EAP). For air quality the stated objective is to achieve "levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment". Among the key measures listed in the 6EAP are the development of a thematic strategy on air pollution, and the review and updating of air quality standards and national emission ceilings, with a view to achieving the long-term objective of not exceeding critical loads and levels. It is clear that the existing legislation is totally inadequate to meet these objectives. In spite of reductions in emissions, in 2020 air pollution is expected to cause 292,000 premature deaths. An ambitious, target-oriented strategy on air pollution is therefore an essential first step towards attaining the EU's objectives for protecting health and the environment. Christer Ågren Tougher stance on particulates Significantly tighter limits on particulate emissions from diesel cars are the only marked stiffening of EU emission rules for passenger cars in the draft proposal sent out for consultation by the EU Commission at the start of summer. In its draft the Commission also paves the way to supplement existing weight standards for particulates with a new standard to limit the number of particulates new cars can emit. The current EU emission rules were laid down back in 1998. Despite the improvements in technology made since then, the standards have not been upgraded. As a result it is now possible to build considerably cleaner cars than the legislation requires. In autumn the EU Commission is expected to invite member states to negotiations on a new generation of emission rules. In advance of these negotiations a draft proposal was presented in July, and organizations, industry and the public were asked for their feedback by 9 September. The Commission will formulate a final proposal for negotiation with member states on the basis of the feedback received. The draft proposal entails very limited stiffening of requirements compared with the Euro 4 rules that came into force on 1 January 2005 (see table).
A comparison of emission standards for passenger cars effective from 1 January 2005 (Euro 4) and the EU Commission's proposed new standards. (mg/km)
1 Applicable only to "lean-burn direct injection engines".
The most significant change is to particulates from diesel cars, for which the emission standard is reduced from 25 to 5 mg/km. In practice this means that all new diesel cars will have to be fitted with particulate filters. The figure of 5 mg/km is the same given in the recommendation for tax incentives for particulate filters that the Commission issued in January this year (see AN 1/05). The Commission commented at the time that this level should not be seen as a way of forestalling review of the obligatory emission rules. But now it has chosen to propose the same level, even though it would have been perfectly viable in technical terms to insist on 2 mg/km or lower. In the debate preceding the negotiations, several stakeholders, including the German environment agency Umweltbundesamt, have demanded that future emission standards should be technology neutral, in other words the same standards should apply regardless of engine type or fuel. The Commission has made a small concession to these demands by introducing the same particulate standards for diesel cars as for direct injection petrol cars. In all essential respects, however, the differences between diesel and petrol cars will remain, and all emission requirements will be stiffened by 20-25 per cent. Diesel cars will still be allowed to emit around three times the level of NOx as petrol cars. One apparently marginal change that could nevertheless be very significant in the long term is that the Commission wants the right to introduce its own new particulate standard based on the number of particulates emitted, as soon as technical methods are reliable enough. The present standards are based on particulate weight, which means they place most emphasis on the largest and heaviest particulates. But when it comes to health effects there are many indications that other factors, such as the number of particulates or their shape and chemical composition, are at least as important. The Commission wants to take advantage of the progress that is being made in this area as soon as it can and therefore wants the Council and the Parliament to allow it to introduce its own standard based on numbers of particulates. The proposal also contains some minor adjustments to the existing regulations. At present very heavy passenger cars (over 2,500 kg) are equated with light commercial vehicles, which means that the emission requirements are milder for the very heaviest passenger cars than for lighter cars. The Commission wants to remove this inconsistency. It also wants to extend manufacturer's durability guarantee period for emission control devices from 80,000 to 160,000 km. Compared with current US legislation (Tier 2) the draft proposal for new EU standards falls well behind in terms of NOx emissions from diesel cars, with 200 mg/km compared with around 44 mg/km (70 mg/mile) in the US. The Commission has acknowledged that the NOx cuts in diesel emissions are lower than those in the US, and that it is already possible to reduce them further, but has insisted the technology to do so "is not yet mature". T&E, the European Federation for Transport and Environment, is critical of the Commission's proposal. It is calling for the limit for particulates to be set at 2.5 rather than 5 mg/km, and for a ceiling of 75 mg/km to be set for NOx emissions from diesel cars. New EU standards for light commercial vehicles are expected to come into force in 2008 at the earliest. The proposed new standards for heavy vehicles (Euro VI) that were to be presented in autumn will probably not appear until next year. Magnus Nilsson Further information: European Commission
Further reductions possible Some of the key elements for a forthcoming review1 of the directive on emissions of air pollutants from large combustion plants (LCPs) have recently been investigated for the European Commission by the UK consultancy Entec2. According to national emission inventories, current emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) from LCPs in the EU15 amount to some 3.6 million tonnes, which equals two-thirds of the total land-based SO2 emissions. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from LCPs are approximately 1.5 million tonnes, about 16 per cent of the total. For both SO2 and NOx, most of the emissions - more than 70 per cent - come from the largest plants, i.e. those with a thermal capacity above 500 MW. The report shows that many countries have imposed tougher emission limit values than required under the directive for "existing" plants (i.e. those built before 1987), and some countries have also set stricter limits for new plants. On the feasibility of requiring further emission reductions from LCPs - beyond what is expected to result from the current directive - Entec says technologies such as after treatment offer the possibility of bringing emissions of NOx and particulates (PM) below the levels required by the directive. Further cuts in SO2 emissions could also be made, but at a relatively higher cost. Moreover, it is emphasized that cost-effectiveness analyses should not only focus on single-pollutant cost curves, but should also take into account additional benefits resulting from the potential abatement of other pollutants. This could be a significant issue for some types of abatement measures for SO2, PM and mercury. In addition to the areas already expected to be reviewed, Entec carried out a "screening level analysis" of the feasibility and desirability of using market-based instruments to cut emissions of SO2 and NOx in the LCP sector. It concluded that a hybrid trading/tax scheme could be more efficient than a tax or tradable permit scheme alone. Such a scheme must however be carefully designed to have a tax rate that sets an upper limit to the permit price and a subsidy that sets a lower limit. The Entec report provides only one of several inputs that will influence the already delayed LCP directive review. Others include the thematic strategy on air pollution (CAFE), expected from the Commission in September, and a forthcoming study into the feasibility of streamlining EU industrial emissions policies. Christer Ågren 1 Article 4.7 of the LCP directive (2001/80/EC) requests the Commission to submit, before 31 December 2004, a report to the European Parliament and the Council in which it shall assess among others the need for, and the technical and economical feasibility of, further emission reduction measures. 2 Preparation of the review relating to the large combustion plant directive. Final report, July 2005. By Entec UK Limited. Download (in pdf format) final report and appendices. EU Commission battle over environment The thematic strategy on air pollution was suspended at the last minute after complaints by industry interests. The future of EU environment policies was the focus of a special debate of the full European Commission on 20 July. Officially, the session was set up to inform the Commission about the seven thematic strategies1 of the Sixth Environment Action Programme, but in reality it reflected an internal power struggle between environmental and business interests. Two of the seven strategies - those on air pollution and the marine environment - were due to be adopted before the summer break. In early June, UNICE, the Union of Industrial and Employers' Confederations of Europe, sent a letter to the Commission's president José Manuel Barroso expressing "deep concerns of European industries regarding the ambition levels" of the draft air pollution strategy. In a quick response, the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) urged Barroso not to be "intimidated by a stakeholder whose strategy it is constantly to exaggerate perceived negative impacts in order to reduce as much as possible obligations on the business sector." Later that month, president Barroso ordered the suspension of the air pollution strategy, which had previously been scheduled for adoption by the Commission on 23 July, and instead set up an "orientation debate" on 20 July for the Commission to agree the direction of the EU's environmental policy. Additionally, in early July, Barroso ordered postponement of a separate communication on aviation and the environment, and the Commission also delayed the adoption of new EU passenger car emission standards. According to a policy paper presented by Stavros Dimas, commissioner for the environment, on 20 July, the seven strategies respond to real long-term environmental challenges on which action is needed now. It argues that all measures proposed are designed to achieve environmental objectives in the most cost-effective way, and in a manner that promotes economic growth and jobs to the greatest extent possible. Dimas also stated that the costs of non-action would be higher in the long run. While the costs for the air pollution strategy for example could be as high as 12 billion euro in 2020 in the worst-case scenario, taking action now could lead to annual health benefits of at least 46 billion euro. After debating the issue, the Commission agreed to move forward to present the seven strategies between September and December. The air pollution strategy is likely to be the first one out, with adoption due by late September. Secretary General of the EEB, John Hontelez commented: "While we welcome the decision to move on with these strategies, we have serious concerns about the expected content of several of them. We know that the ambition level is not high in many cases, and the current pressure to not come with any proposal that business considers to be bad for competitiveness is not helping." Christer Ågren 1 The seven thematic strategies cover: air pollution; marine environment; pesticide use; urban environment; sustainable use of resources; waste prevention and recycling; and soil management. The Sixth Environment Action Programme was adopted by the Council and the Parliament on 22 July 2002, and the seven strategies were to be adopted within three years of that date. Further reading: The letters from UNICE and EEB are available at www.unice.org and www.eeb.org. Policy scenarios for the thematic strategy on air pollution were described in Acid News 2/05. See also editorial comment in this issue. Increased power production drives EU emissions up in 2003 Emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU15 rose by 1.3 percentage points in 2003, according to a report from the European Environment Agency.1 This means there has been a continuous rise since 2000, and in 2003 emissions were only 1.7 per cent lower than in the base year, which is usually 1990 (see table below). In order to fulfil its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol average emissions in the EU15 over the five years 2008-12 must be eight per cent below the base-year level.
Total EU15 greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the Kyoto target. Index 1990 = 100. Emissions from international aviation and shipping, and emissions from/removals by land use change and forestry, are not covered. Assuming a linear reduction path between 1990 and 2010 emissions for 2003 should have been 5.2 per cent below the baseline level. In absolute figures, emissions increased between 2002 and 2003 by 53 million CO2 equivalent tonnes. The EEA identified higher coal burning as the main driver for the rise. In the EU15, energy industries emitted an extra 24 million CO2 equivalent tonnes. Households and services emitted 18 million tonnes more, partly because of cold weather in the first quarter, and industry an extra 17 million tonnes. Transport emissions rose by a comparatively modest 6 million tonnes. Emissions of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, have steadily risen since 1992 and were 3.4 per cent above the base-year level in 2003. The only noteworthy reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide to date happened as a consequence of the economic breakdown in Eastern Germany after the reunification and the fuel switch from coal to gas in the United Kingdom in the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2003, Italy, Finland and the UK saw the largest emission increases in absolute terms: 15, 8 and 7 million tonnes respectively. Only two of the fifteen countries reported lower emissions compared with the year before: Portugal with -5.3 per cent, and Ireland with -2.6 per cent. In Portugal a sharp increase in hydropower production was one of the main reasons. In Ireland, the decline is the result of a number of factors. In the EU15, emission levels now range from 41 per cent above the 1990 baseline (Spain) to nearly 19 per cent below (Germany). See table. The commissioner for the environment, Stavros Dimas, commented that the new figures were "disappointing", but also pointed out that several major initiatives, including the EU Emission Trading Scheme, were not yet in place in 2003. He remains confident that the EU will achieve its Kyoto targets once these kick in fully. In addition, some member states are starting to take advantage of other options for reducing emissions that are available under the Kyoto Protocol. These options allow countries to achieve part of their targets by investing in emissions-saving projects in other countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, or by undertaking projects that sequester CO2 in forests or agricultural land. Per Elvingson 1 Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2003 and inventory report 2005. Available at http://reports.eea.eu.int/technical_report_2005_4/en. Note. Because the EU's collective undertaking in the Kyoto Protocol only applies to the Union's 15 pre-2004 members, only emissions from these countries are dealt with here. Of the ten new member states, all except Malta and Cyprus have their own climate targets, which they look set to meet easily, with the exception of Slovenia. Table. Greenhouse gas emissions trends and Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012.
Note: Malta and Poland did not provide GHG emission estimates for 2003, therefore the data provided in this table is based on interpolation. Malta and Cyprus do not have Kyoto Protocol targets. Low-emission future within reach The EU can reduce emissions of greenhouse gases substantially at a very low cost. By combining domestic measures with emission trading it is possible to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU25 member states by 40 per cent between 1990 and 2030, according to new calculations by the European Environment Agency. The starting point for the EEA's calculations was that atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases should be stabilized at 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2 eq.). This could be achieved, according to the EEA, if global emissions fall 15 per cent between 1990 and 2050. (However, to have a reasonable degree of certainty of meeting the EU's political target for a maximum 2°C temperature rise above the pre-industrial level, global emissions must fall 50 per cent by 2050 - see box below.) To determine the EU's share in a global reduction of 15 per cent the EEA has analyzed various models for the distribution of future emissions, and found that emissions in the EU should be reduced 20 per cent below the 1990 level by 2020, 40 per cent below by 2030 and 65 per cent by 2050. In the global, cost-effective approach used for the report, total global mitigation costs are minimized. This approach has been used to calculate the amount of expected "domestic action" in various global regions. According to the EEA calculation model it will be cost-effective for the EU to use independent measures to achieve 50-70 per cent of the gap between the baseline projection for 2030 and the target of 40 per cent reduction for the same year. The remaining reductions would be achieved by international emission trading abroad in an effective global emission trading market. For 2050 the expected domestic emission reduction is 61 per cent compared with 1990 levels. This represents 95 per cent of the assumed target of a 65 per cent reduction for 2050. In the central climate action scenario the total domestic emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU25 fall gradually over the coming decades, so that by 2030 they are more than 16 per cent lower than in 1990. With a stronger commitment to renewable energy this reduction could rise to 25 per cent. The EEA report underlines that an energy system in line with the climate action scenario is within reach if the EU: - Improves energy efficiency, particularly in households, services and industry. These are expected to account for almost half of the emission reduction in 2010. Towards 2030 their contribution will decrease to about one third. With higher energy prices, further energy efficiency measures are more profitable, however. - Changes the way it generates energy. Towards 2030 more than 70 per cent of the CO2 emissions reductions are expected to be achieved in the power generation sector due to a shift to low-carbon or non-carbon fuels. The use of solid fuels is expected to decline substantially and of natural gas to increase rapidly. Combined heat and power will increase its share of electricity production. - Removes environmentally harmful subsidies to fossil fuels. Subsidies to energy in the EU15 were 29 billion euro in 2001, with 73 per cent oriented towards the support of fossil fuels. - Invests instead in renewable energy sources and sets targets for renewables. In particular wind power and biomass use are expected to increase their share in primary energy sources. - Explores new technologies for carbon capture and storage, which can serve as a transition technology towards a low-carbon energy system. - Increases research and development in clean technology, for example in hydrogen fuel cells. - Raises awareness among the public, as well as business, of the contribution they can make in their lives to reduce the energy intensity of the economy. Under all scenarios explored by the EEA, the transport sector still remains a difficult area in which to reduce emissions. Emissions of carbon dioxide from transport are projected to continue to grow under all scenarios (to 25-28 per cent above the 1990 level by 2030) because of the steady increase in passenger and freight demand. The EEA also explored the costs involved in converting Europe to a low-carbon energy system. Many early initiatives in energy efficiency in the household and service sectors may have low or even negative costs. But significant moves away from fossil fuels could represent an increased cost, compared with the baseline, of about 100 billion euro in 2030. This corresponds, in 2030, to 0.6 per cent of EU GDP, which is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The additional energy bill for European households by 2030, compared with the baseline, is projected to be relatively small, about 110-120 euro per household per year. This should be compared with an increase in the energy bill, in the baseline scenario, of 1,900 euro per household per year in the EU15 and 3,400 euro in the EU10 in 2030, compared with 2000. An alternative scenario involving a stronger commitment to renewable energy, which leads to substantial additional CO2 emission reductions, could increase the energy bill by another 10-20 euro per household per year by 2030. The EEA believes that there is increased evidence that the benefits of limiting global temperature increase to 2°C in terms of avoiding damage from climate change throughout the world, outweigh the costs of measures to reduce emissions. Furthermore a European low-carbon energy system is expected to result in additional ancillary benefits, such as a reduction in emissions of air pollutants, enhanced security of supply, and potential beneficial effects on employment. The EEA considers that there is a need for further analysis of the macro-economic and sectoral costs, as well as the costs of inaction. Per Elvingson Source: Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system. EEA Report No 1/2005. Available in pdf format at http://reports.eea.eu.int/eea_report_2005_1/en
Decrease in emissions too slow Emissions of carbon dioxide from new cars sold in the EU15 are falling, but not at the rate needed for the automotive industry to fulfil its undertaking. This is shown by the annual evaluation by the Commission that was presented in June.1 Responding to threats of legislation, trade organizations representing the automotive industry promised, in an agreement with the Commission in 1998, to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from new cars sold in the EU from 186 g/km in 1995 to a maximum of 140 g/km by 2008, a reduction of 25 per cent (Korean manufacturers were given an extension until 2009). By 2003 the average level was 164 g/km, a reduction of almost 12 per cent since 1995 and an improvement of 1.2 per cent over the previous year. However, the rate of reduction will need to be doubled or trebled in order to reach the target by 2008/09. Negotiations are due to start later this year on moving beyond the 140 g/km target to the EU's political goal of 120 g/km. In its own reviews the automotive industry has stated that a new interim target of 120 g/km by 2012 cannot be achieved cost-effectively. The Commission intends to carry out its own assessment and will present a proposal to Council and Parliament in the second half of 2005. 1 Implementing the Community Strategy to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Cars: Fifth annual Communication on the effectiveness of the strategy. COM(2005)269 final. http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/co2/co2_home.htm. See also AN 1/05.
Average emissions of CO2 from new cars sold in the EU15, 1995 to 2003, and targets for 2008 (140 g/km) and 2010 (120 g/km). Broad support for action The aviation industry is once again growing fast, and the industry's contribution to climate change is high on the European political agenda. A public internet consultation conducted by the European Commission has shown broad support among the aviation industry, NGOs and citizens for action to be taken to limit the aviation sector's growing impact on climate change. Almost 5,600 individuals and 200 organizations submitted responses to the internet consultation carried out during the spring. A large majority of those citizens responding (82 per cent) fully agreed with the policy objective of including the air transport sector in efforts to mitigate climate change. Nine out of ten fully or partly agreed with the objective of strengthening economic incentives for air transport operators to reduce their impact on the climate. Organizations such as airports, airlines and NGOs also believe that action is required: 99.5 per cent of respondents fully or partly agreed that the air transport sector should be included in efforts to mitigate climate change - although opinions differ on how this should be done. To complement previous studies on fuel taxation and emissions charges, the Commission had a study carried out into the possibility of including aviation in the EU greenhouse gas emission trading scheme (ETS).1 The study shows that including aviation in the ETS would be feasible, although the effects of such a reform are likely to be fairly modest. It is expected that the main response of airlines will be to buy emissions rights rather than reduce their own emissions. The price rise for a long-haul return flight would, at most, be under 10 euro per ticket and it is estimated that demand growth would be only slightly slower than if business continued as usual. The Commission is now working on an EU strategy to tackle aviation's contribution to climate change, and this is expected in September. The inclusion of aviation in the ETS, effective from 2013, is said to be one of the main ambitions of this work. Emission trading has also met a positive response from many airports and several airlines. Environmentalists are not against the move but say it is insufficient to reduce emissions. Jos Dings, director of T&E, the European Federation for Transport and Environment, believes that the airlines see emission trading as a way to avoid tougher - and hence more effective - measures: "From our perspective, there are several reasons why we believe that such measures as fuel taxation or en-route charges are also needed," he says, and mentions the fact that the aviation sector currently escapes most of the taxes and charges that affect every other area of economic activity. A tax of just ten cents per litre on aviation fuel - a fraction of road fuel taxes - would reduce emissions by eight per cent, according to Dings, who feels it should be made clear that emission trading "is the beginning, not the end, of climate policy for the aviation sector". 1 Giving wings to emission trading. Inclusion of aviation under the European Emission Trading System (ETS): Design and impacts. Delft, CE, July 2005. Available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/aviation_en.htm See also the June 2005 joint NGO position paper, Measures to Curb the Climate Change Impacts of Aviation. Available at www.t-e.nu.
Not only good for the environment Economic growth, more jobs and better security of supply highlighted in a recent green paper. Energy use within the EU could be reduced by 20 per cent by 2020, resulting in economic savings of 60 billion euro per year, while at the same time increasing economic growth, creating jobs and reducing the union's dependence on energy from foreign sources. It would also help EU meet its Kyoto commitments. These are the findings of the European Commission in the green paper on energy efficiency that was presented at the end of June.1 The environmental benefits of using energy more efficiently are mostly mentioned in passing, instead the emphasis is placed on factors such as competitiveness and security of supply. The EU's own oil and gas reserves are shrinking steadily, while energy use is increasing by one to two per cent each year, a trend that is primarily driven by growing demand for electricity and transport. The Commission expects an increase of 10 per cent over the coming 15 years if business continues as usual, from 1725 Mtoe today (2005) to 1900 Mtoe by 2020.2 The objective of the green paper is to arrive at the level of 1990, i.e. 1520 Mtoe by 2020. This is 20 per cent below the expected level if no action is taken, and 12 per cent below today's level. Potential cost-effective savings. Indicative only. Unit: million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per year.
Source: Green paper on energy efficiency. COM(2005)265 final. The positive environmental effects of such a development would undoubtedly be significant and would greatly improve the potential of the EU to meet future climate targets. The likely environmental effects were not however quantified by the Commission. Because the green paper is intended as a basis for discussion it does not contain any concrete measures, but the Commission does list a number of options to reach the target in a cost-effective way, which not only save energy but also save money. They involve increased use of energy efficient technologies, as well as changes in consumer behaviour. Transport is identified as a key sector, since energy use continues to rise steadily, and buildings are identified as another, since they offer excellent potential for improvements in energy efficiency. The Commission is of the opinion that half of the saving compared with business as usual could be achieved through a full implementation by member states of legislation already adopted, or about to be adopted, on buildings, domestic appliances or energy services. To save the other 10 per cent "Europe now needs to be imaginative and proactive," said energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs when the green paper was presented. The Commission suggests a wide range of policy tools. Examples of actions include: - Establishing annual energy efficiency action plans at national level. - Improving energy pricing and taxation to ensure that the polluter really pays. - Using public procurement to kick-start new technologies. - Extending the scope of the directive on buildings. The publication of the green paper will be followed by a consultation process. In 2006 the Commission intends to put forward an action plan outlining the specific action to be taken at EU and national levels. Per Elvingson 1 Green paper on energy efficiency or doing more with less. COM(2005)265 final. Available at http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/efficiency/index_en.htm 2 Mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent. 1 Mtoe = 11.6 TWh.
Member countries do not want mandatory targets In a first reading of the Commission's proposed directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services1 on 7 June the European Parliament asked for progressively rising energy efficiency targets of 1 per cent per year for the first three years (2006-08), 1.3 per cent for the next three years, and 1.5 per cent for the following three years - in all an improvement in energy efficiency of 11.5 per cent by 2015. In addition they asked for higher targets for the public sector, starting with 1.5 per cent in the initial years. The Parliament also wanted the targets to be mandatory. The Commission proposed mandatory one-per-cent annual efficiency improvements between 2006 and 2012. Environmental groups were disappointed that Parliament had not set even higher efficiency targets. WWF said only annual targets for "at least 2.5 per cent for the private sector and 3 per cent for the public sector could encourage ... action and have a real impact in fighting climate change and promoting industry's competitiveness". The energy ministers chose however to set the ribbon even lower in an agreement reached at their meeting on 28 June. They agreed to only a 6-per-cent increase in energy efficiency for the first six years, with no mandatory targets and no special targets for the public sector. The Parliament is expected to discuss the proposal in a second reading in autumn 2005. In the event of a disagreement between Parliament and the Council - which seems likely - the two bodies will settle their differences through negotiation. 1 COM(2003)739. See also "The Energy Efficiency Challenge" by WWF European Policy Office 2005. Can be downloaded free of charge from www.panda.org/epo. High levels, especially in south Harmfully high levels of ground-level ozone were observed over the whole of Europe in 2004. Levels in southern Europe were highest of all. Ground-level ozone is formed in the air by nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In summer 2004, exceedances of the long-term objective for the protection of human health (maximum 120 µg/m3 eight-hour mean value) were observed in every country (except Latvia), in almost every summer month and at most of the stations. The target value for 2010 set in an EU directive adopted in 2003 - no more than 25 exceedances of the eight-hour mean value per year - was overshot in eight countries: Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Slovenia and Italy. The spatial extent of the exceedances observed was comparable with previous years, except for summer 2003. The most frequent exceedances of the information threshold (180 µg/m3 one-hour average) were observed in southern France, northern Italy and at several locations in Portugal, Spain and Greece. The same countries also had the most exceedances of the alert threshold (240 µg/m3 one-hour average). The highest one-hour concentrations were observed in Italy and Spain. Over the period 1996-2002, the observed ozone trends are in general not statistically significant. Per Elvingson Source: Air pollution by ozone in Europe in summer 2004. Overview of exceedances of EC ozone threshold values during April-September 2004. EEA Technical report No. 3/2005. Available at www.eea.eu.int. Information on actual exceedances is available from the website of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. This site also has links to national websites that continuously report current levels and exceedances. All NAPs approved On 20 June the Commission approved the Greek national allocation plan (NAP), the last of 25 approved plans for the allocation of emission rights under the EU's trading system (ETS) for carbon dioxide. There are now more than 11,400 installations participating in the system under a carbon dioxide ceiling of 2.2 billion tonnes per year for 2005-7. The countries have to deliver new allocation plans for the period 2008-12 to the Commission by June next year, plans which must allow considerably fewer emission rights than at present if the EU is to meet its climate target. Roughly half the emissions of carbon dioxide in the EU are covered by the trading system. A Commission review of the ETS legislation is also due by June 2006. This is primarily expected to describe suggested changes for the period after 2012. Further information: European Commission DG Environment. See also CAN-Europe position paper on the NAPs for phase 2 (2008-12), June 2005. CO2 charge instead of registration taxes Vehicle registration taxes in the member states could be abolished and replaced with a harmonized EU tax based on a vehicle's carbon dioxide emissions. This proposal, put forward by the Commission, is intended to simplify car taxation so that people who move cross borders do not have to pay twice, as well as offering incentives for more fuel-efficient cars. The idea of linking car taxes to emissions is welcomed by the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E), but the organization is sceptical towards linking CO2 emissions to an abolition of vehicle registration taxes. "Member states should retain the right to impose registration taxes - they too should be linked to CO2 emissions, and set at levels that genuinely encourage consumers to buy cleaner cars," said T&E director Jos Dings. Sixteen of the EU's 25 member states levy a registration tax, varying from a nominal amount to a high levy in Denmark, while nine countries have no registration tax. The chances of approval of the proposal are not good, as finance ministers traditionally oppose tax proposals at EU level. Further reading: T&E Bulletin, June 2005. Proposal for a Council directive on passenger car related taxes. COM(2005)261 final. Marine sulphur directive in force The directive on sulphur in marine fuel entered into force in August, after having been published in the Official Journal.1 Its first provisions, including the 1.5-per-cent fuel sulphur limit for the Baltic Sea and passenger vessels, will apply from 11 August 2006. Its full name is Directive 2005/33 of the European Parliament and Council amending Directive 1999/32 as regards the sulphur content of marine fuel. 1 Official Journal of the European Union. L 191/59, 22 July 2005. See also Acid News 2/05. Slow start for biofuels directive Progress is slow on implementation of the EU directive on biofuels that was adopted in 2003. The directive calls for a two-per-cent reference goal by 2005 and states had to explain if their targets were different. Despite letters of formal notice sent in February, by the start of July eight countries had still not informed the Commission of the measures they have taken to transpose the directive into national law. For five countries, reports on national targets were missing or regarded as incomplete. The Commission also rejected very low targets submitted by seven states, saying they did not comply with EU rules. Source: Press release from the Commission, 6 July. Member states' national reports under the biofuels directive are available on http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/res/legislation/biofuels_en.htm Mercury export ban At its meeting in June the EU Environment Council gave support to the mercury strategy that was presented by the Commission in February (see AN 1/05, p. 22). Ministers said exports of the heavy metal should be phased out "as soon as possible, and by 2011 at the latest." The council said it was also "essential...to develop viable techniques" to further reduce mercury emissions from fuel combustion, but did not specifically call for limits on emissions from this source. The strategy, which will now be transposed into concrete legal bills (directives) by the EU Commission, presents around 20 measures for reducing the threat of mercury in Europe and the world in general. Biomass and heating The Commission is preparing a strategy for biomass use, responding to the slow development of biomass use in the EU compared with prior expectations. The strategy is expected to be presented during the autumn and to include action for promoting biomass for heating. Source: Sustainable Energy News, June 2005. Ecodesign directive comes into force The framework directive for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-using products, which was presented by the Commission back in 2003, has now entered into force.1 The directive was adopted following a compromise between Parliament and the Council of Ministers in April this year. Specific minimum requirements for different products will be laid down by the Commission with effect from 2007. Over a hundred different product groups are affected, including heating boilers, water heaters, electric motors, office equipment, computers, lighting and household appliances. Voluntary agreements on minimum requirements will form the basis in areas where there are many European manufacturers, while mandatory requirements are expected in others. The possibility of voluntary agreements has been criticized by environmental organizations, which see these as a much weaker option. They are also critical of the fact that the directive makes it more difficult for individual countries to set stricter requirements of their own. 1 Directive 2005/32/EC establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-using products. Official Journal L 191, 22/07/2005 P. 0029-0058. Sustainable Energy Europe In July the EU Commission launched the Sustainable Energy Europe campaign, in an effort to promote examples of best practice, ensure a strong level of public awareness, understanding and support, and stimulate the necessary trends towards an increase in private investment in sustainable energy technologies. The campaign has a number of benchmarking targets for 2008. The total budget is 3.7 million euro. Further information: www.sustenergy.org Stricter standards to be studied In July the United Nations body that regulates shipping across the world agreed to review and potentially tighten air pollution standards for the world's shipping fleet. At its meeting in July the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to initiate a process to revise international standards for emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides from shipping and to consider regulating emissions of particulates as well as volatile organic compounds emitted from cargoes. Limits on existing engines will also be considered. The MEPC's commitment to revise MARPOL Annex VI was supported by environmental NGOs as well as many nations, including Finland, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Korea, China and South Africa. Only a few nations opposed revision, including Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and Argentina. The forthcoming review of Annex VI is to be carried out by the Sub-committee on Bulk Liquids and Gases (BLG), and should be ready by 2007. The MEPC's action came after a group of seven European nations officially proposed the commencement of a process to consider stronger air pollution standards. A coalition of environmental NGOs had also submitted to the MEPC a technical background paper, which demonstrated that shipping emissions are significant and growing; occur mostly near shore areas where they contribute to disease, death and ecosystem damage; and can be substantially reduced through existing feasible, cost-effective emissions control measures (see AN 2/05). "Shipping emissions represent one of the last major air pollution sectors on the planet that remain virtually unregulated, and it's time for these emissions to be cleaned up," noted David Marshall, Senior Counsel for the Clean Air Task Force. "Ships burn much dirtier fuel and emit air pollutants at much higher rates than land-based diesel engines. The current IMO regulations were adopted in 1997, but were outdated before they became effective and are woefully inadequate." At the same session, the MEPC adopted the North Sea as a new SOx Emission Control Area (SECA), which means that the maximum allowed sulphur content will be 1.5 per cent for marine fuels used by ships in this sea area. The date of implementation is not yet final, but is expected to be 21 November 2007. (The only other SECA established so far is the Baltic Sea, in which the 1.5-per-cent sulphur limit will become mandatory as from 19 May 2006.) New data from monitoring of the worldwide sulphur content in marine fuel oils, presented to the MEPC, revealed that the latest three-year rolling average (2002-2004) was 2.67 per cent. Christer Ågren
Monitoring of ships' emissions feasible The level of emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from individual ships could feasibly be monitored, according to a new consultancy report1. This means that reductions in such emissions from ships, as a result of abatement techniques or cleaner fuels for example, could also be monitored and verified. In 2002, shipping and oil industry interests put forward ideas for EU-wide trading schemes involving sea-based emissions of NOx and SO2 (see AN 4/02). The environment directorate of the European Commission said it was interested in using economic instruments in general, but raised practical concerns. An overview of the potential of using such instruments in the shipping sector was published in 2004 (AN 1/04). The final report of the so-called Demo Project, produced by consultancy PriceWaterhouseCoopers, sets out to answer these practical concerns. Its authors claim that there is potential for emission trading schemes involving ships to be cost-efficient, and that they could lead to substantial emission reductions. The report does not however include any complete cost estimates for monitoring or for verification activities. Last year the environment directorate commissioned another consultancy study on economic instruments to cut air pollution from shipping, which is expected to be published this autumn. Emissions of air pollutants from ships are an increasing source of concern. According to projections under the EU's CAFE programme, by 2020 the emissions of SO2 and NOx from international shipping around Europe will have surpassed the total from all land-based sources in the 25 member states combined. Christer Ågren 1 Demo Project. Final report. (April 2005). By PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Available at www.demoproject.org. Climate threat increasingly clear Serious effects start to become widespread with just a two-degree rise in global mean temperature. In February some 200 climate researchers gathered in the UK at the invitation of Prime Minister Tony Blair to report the latest findings on the effects of global warming. The researchers' summary provides a new and coherent picture of the negative effects that climate changes are having on everything from alpine vegetation to coral reefs and rainforests. The global mean temperature is now 0.7 degrees higher than the pre-industrial level. Even with a temperature rise of just one degree, in around 25 years' time if current trends continue, sensitive ecosystems will be affected and food production will fail as water shortages become more frequent in dry regions. With a rise of two degrees, in around 50 years' time, serious effects will start to spread. The Arctic ice sheet will be halved and coral reefs will die. Sensitive but diverse ecosystems such as the flora of the South African Cape, China's subtropical forests and European alpine flora will begin to die. More than one and a half billion people will experience water stress and we will have at least 150 million climate refugees. Agriculture will face major problems in dry areas. Economic development will be threatened in many countries. With a three-degree global rise, within 60-70 years at current trends, the situation will become critical. The Amazon rainforest will be seriously damaged, most coral reefs will be dead and areas of alpine flora will have completely disappeared. More than 5.5 billion people could then be living in areas with greatly reduced food production, and three billion people are likely to experience acute water shortages. Global warming will probably exceed two degrees even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at 550 ppm (CO2 equivalent). Concentrations would have to stabilize at 400 ppm, which is actually about 25 ppm lower than today, for there to be a high certainty of the 2°C temperature limit being respected. Limiting greenhouse gas concentrations to even 550 ppm represents a challenge. The world would have to cut emissions 15 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050 to achieve this. Emissions would have to be halved to achieve stabilization at 400 ppm. The researchers at the conference also presented new and worrying evidence of increased acidification of the oceans as a result of the seas soaking up more and more carbon dioxide, which combines with water to form carbonic acid. Free chalk is becoming a scarce commodity in the seas, which has a major effect on plankton production and coral reefs. This poses a long-term threat to most marine food chains. Data was also presented at the conference which shows there is a risk that the West Antarctic ice sheet could eventually break up and be carried out to sea. Several gigantic floes have already broken away from the ice shelf, and the rate at which the glaciers in the area are losing ice has increased by a factor of two to six. Anders Friström More information, including a summary, "Report of the International Scientific Steering Committee", is available from the conference website at www.stabilisation2005.com Summits pave way to Montreal in November In November the first major meeting under the climate convention will be held since the Kyoto Protocol came into force in spring. The big question is what will happen post-Kyoto, in other words when the protocol runs out in 2012. One of the first priorities is to get the USA - which alone accounts for one quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions - to return to the negotiations. In July the leaders of the G8 group, representing the world's richest countries, met in Scotland. Climate change was the main topic chosen by this year's chairman of the group, the UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair. The outcome of the meeting was a rather watered-down resolution, however. Clearer recognition of the problem by the USA could possibly be seen as a step forwards - climate change is happening now, human activity is contributing to it, and it could affect every part of the globe, states the final declaration. But the leaders decided on dialogue, technological development and marketing rather than emission limits to address the problem. In mid-August Denmark hosted an informal meeting in Greenland with ministers and officials from 22 countries, including the USA, China, India, Brazil, Japan and the European Union. This meeting again resulted in a fairly general declaration, but also an agreement on further dialogue. The next meeting will probably be held in South Africa in 2006. In July, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the USA founded a new partnership - the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate - to address energy security, climate change and air pollution issues. The six countries made a joint vision statement that pledges to "develop, deploy and transfer existing and emerging clean technology." Australia and the USA are both outside the Kyoto Protocol. However according to the USA the new initiative should be seen as "a complement, not an alternative," to Kyoto. Further information: The chair's summary from the G8 meeting and from the discussions in Greenland, as well as information on the forthcoming summit in Montreal can be found on the climate convention website: www.unfccc.int. UK environmental organizations mobilize on climate issue Five hundred volunteers forming a giant human banner on London's South Bank provided a spectacular launch for Stop Climate Chaos, a climate coalition made up of eighteen UK organizations, which together have several million members. The new movement believes politicians have so far failed to take anything like sufficient action to tackle the threat. "With coordinated action and the mobilization of its massive supporter base Stop Climate Chaos aims to become a potent political force for action," declares a press release. Among other things the coalition calls on the UK government to deliver substantial annual reductions in UK greenhouse gas emissions, to meet its target of cutting CO2 emissions by 20 per cent by 2010 and to commit to an EU-wide greenhouse gas reduction target of 30 per cent by 2020. It also urges the UK government to put climate change at the top of the agenda in its international efforts and to direct aid to poor countries towards low-carbon technologies and clean energy. Information: www.stopclimatechaos.org All the world's glaciers could melt Global warming may result in the complete disappearance of glaciers from entire mountain ranges, according to the latest update of a report issued once every five years. "The last five-year period of the 20th century has been characterized by an overall tendency of continuous if not accelerated glacier melting," says the World Glacier Monitoring Service's 1995-2000 edition of the Fluctuations of Glaciers report, compiled with the support of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). Melt water from glaciers is critically important for the supply of freshwater in many dry areas, such as parts of India and the Peruvian capital, Lima. Source: ENS News Service, 5 August 2005. See also www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms. Hotter in the European cities A report from WWF, analyzing summer temperature data from 16 EU cities, shows the continent's capitals warming by sometimes more than 2°C in the last 30 years. The report highlights the likelihood of more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts and rainstorms as average temperatures increase, the kind of events expected as a result of global warming. Further reading: Europe feels the heat - Extreme weather and the power sector. Published in August 2005. Available in pdf format (1.9 MB) at www.panda.org/campaign/powerswitch Hard times ahead for the tourism industry Tourists are set to sizzle in hotter summer temperatures and may well stay in cooler countries as the Mediterranean region's climate becomes hotter and more variable, according to a report commissioned by WWF. The Mediterranean coastline is the world's most popular tourist destination, attracting 30 per cent of the world's tourists and tourism revenue. But the report says that a 2°C rise in global temperatures would mean more frequent heat waves and droughts, more forest fires, and problems for freshwater and agriculture. All these factors, directly and indirectly, discourage summer holidays in the Mediterranean. For the agricultural sector higher temperatures and longer droughts could mean less food produced. As temperatures warm up and summer rain diminishes, crops depending on rain would be most severely affected, with yields expected to decline by up to 40 per cent. Further reading: Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global temperature rise. Can be downloaded in pdf format from www.panda.org/campaign/powerswitch Testing energy ideas Supported by the Canadian government, among others, a web-based support centre has been set up which offers a free program for analyzing the technical and economic viability of projects for renewable energy and energy efficiency. The modelling method uses integrated databases for products, costs and meteorology, and is designed for use worldwide. Further information: International Clean Energy Decision Support Centre, www.retscreen.net. Falling on land, rising at sea European emissions of acidifying, eutrophying and ozone-forming substances from land-based sources are continuing to fall slightly, but considerably slower than in the 1990s. Some of the reductions on land are also countered by rising emissions from international shipping. Since the early 1980s total European emissions of sulphur dioxide, the most significant acidifying pollutant, from land-based emission sources have fallen by close to 75 per cent, from around 53 million tonnes in 1980 to 14 million tonnes in 2003. At the same time, however, emissions from international shipping in European waters have nearly doubled, from 1.7 to 3 million tonnes a year. Emissions of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and ammonia remained more or less constant during the 1980s, but since 1990 have fallen by around 30-40 per cent. In the case of nitrogen oxides a large part of the emission reduction from land-based sources has been offset by rising emissions at sea. As with sulphur dioxide, these have almost doubled since 1980. The data in the table on the opposite page is taken from figures reported by the countries themselves to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and is compiled by EMEP, the cooperative programme for monitoring and evaluating long-range transmissions of air pollutants in Europe.1 The EMEP programme is not confined to keeping track of emissions. Its main task is to model the ways in which emissions from one country are affecting the environment in others (see below). An overview of calculations for source-receptor relationships, covering acidifying, eutrophying and photo-oxidant pollution as well as fine particles (PM) is presented in another EMEP report.2 Per Elvingson 1 Inventory Review 2005: Emission Data reported to LRTAP Convention and NEC Directive. Initial review for HMs and POPs. Technical Report MSC-W 1/05. Available at www.emep.int/mscw/mscw_publications.html 2 Transboundary acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone in Europe 2003. EMEP Status Report 1/05. Available at www.emep.int/publ/common_publications.html. Table: European emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides (as NO2), ammonia, and volatile organic compounds. Only available in pdf format: download here.
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