The CAFE programme and the thematic strategy on air pollution

Factsheet from the Swedish NGO Secretariat on Acid Rain. November 2005.

An extended version with country-by-country tables is available in pdf format only: 270 kB

Introduction

Current levels of air pollution cause severe health impacts in the European Union, resulting in some 370,000 premature deaths each year, increased hospital admissions, extra medication, and millions of lost working days. Additionally, there is widespread and significant damage to ecosystems, agricultural crops, modern materials, and our cultural heritage. The annual cost to society of health impacts alone from fine particles and ozone for the year 2000 has been estimated at between 276 and 790 billion euro.

Adopted by the Council and the European Parliament in July 2002, the EU's Sixth Environmental Action Programme (6EAP) establishes the objective of achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment. For ecosystems this includes the requirement that critical loads and levels shall not be exceeded.

The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme was launched by the Commission in 2001, with the aim of reviewing current air quality policies and assessing progress towards the long-term objectives of the 6EAP. (See box below for more details about the aims and activities of CAFE.)

The 6EAP calls on the Commission to develop seven thematic strategies, including one on air pollution. One of the main tasks of CAFE up to 2005 has been to inform and assist the development of the thematic strategy on air pollution.

Emission trends up to 2020

In order to assess the effectiveness of current air quality policies, CAFE constructed a baseline scenario (also called the "current legislation" scenario - CLE) showing the expected emission levels up to 2020.

The main tool used for the scenario construction and analysis was the RAINS computer model for integrated assessment, essentially the same as that used a few years ago in putting together the directive on national emission ceilings. In addition, other computer models were employed to provide information on trends in the energy, transport and agriculture sectors.

The baseline energy scenario provides a consistent EU-wide view of energy developments, including certain measures needed for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. It results in a reduction in CO2 emissions of 7.4 per cent by 2010 and 3.6 per cent by 2020, as compared to the base year 1990.

Based on this energy scenario, and assuming full implementation of current air quality legislation , emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the 25 EU member countries will fall by two-thirds by 2020, as compared to the base year 2000. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and fine particles (PM2.5) will be reduced by nearly half, while those of ammonia (NH3) are expected to remain more or less the same up to 2020. (See figure 1.)

Concentrations and depositions of air pollutants are also influenced by emissions from international shipping in the sea areas surrounding Europe. In contrast to the progress in reducing emissions from land-based sources, shipping emissions are expected to continue increasing.

Even after accounting for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI and the new EU directive on sulphur in marine fuels, emissions of SO2 from ships are expected to increase by more than 42 per cent by 2020, and those of NOx by two-thirds. In both cases, by 2020 the emissions from international shipping around Europe will have surpassed the total from all land-based sources in the 25 member states combined.

FIGURE 1. Emissions in EU25 of SO2, NOx, VOCs, NH3, and PM2.5 in the base year 2000 and six scenarios for 2020. (thousand tonnes)

CLE is based on full implementation of current EU legislation; scenarios A, B and C are policy scenarios reflecting various level of ambition; Strategy illustrates the ambition level of the Commission's proposed Thematic Strategy; and MTFR illustrates implementation of so-called maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR).

Current legislation inadequate

Damage to health is caused primarily by two types of air pollutants, namely fine particles and ozone. The latter is formed in the atmosphere from the reactions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. It is a strongly oxidising gas that can damage vegetation (including agricultural crops and forest trees), certain type of materials, and human health.

Concentrations of fine particles are increased through direct emissions of so-called primary particles, as well as indirectly through the release of gaseous pollutants (especially SO2, NOx, and NH3) that react in the atmosphere to form so-called secondary particles.

For PM2.5 the RAINS model estimates changes in the loss of statistical life expectancy that can be attributed to changes in anthropogenic emissions. It should be noted that these calculations do not include secondary organic aerosols and they only refer to impact on the population over 30 years of age, thus underestimating the total impact.

Using the pollution levels for the year 2000, it is estimated that PM2.5 results in an average shortening of statistical life expectancy of more than eight months in the EU, equivalent to 3.6 million life years lost annually. Under current legislation, by 2020 this figure comes down to about 5.5 months (equivalent to 2.5 million life years lost).

When it comes to ozone, the RAINS model estimates the number of premature deaths associated with ozone levels above a cut-off level of 35 parts per billion (ppb). Since there is medical evidence of health impact even below 35 ppb, the use of this cut-off level results in an underestimation of the impact. The number of premature deaths estimated as above will gradually decrease up to 2020 as a result of decreased emissions of the ozone precursors NOx and VOCs.

Acidification, i.e. excess deposition of acidifying sulphur and nitrogen compounds, causes damage to both freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. For the year 2000, nearly one quarter of a million square kilometres - or 21 per cent - of the forest area received acid deposition above the sustainable levels (the critical loads). By 2020 this is calculated to come down to about 10 per cent.

Excess input of nutrient nitrogen - in the form of nitrogen oxides or ammonia - to terrestrial ecosystems gives rise to changes in plant communities and a consequent loss of biodiversity. The present nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads over 57 per cent of the area of sensitive ecosystems - a figure that will come down to 46 per cent by 2020.

The critical level for protecting forest trees from ozone damage is currently exceeded over two-thirds of the ecosystem area. Under current legislation, by 2020 this figure will only be marginally reduced.

Table 1 provides a summary of the health and environmental impacts of various scenarios analysed by CAFE. It is clear that significant negative impacts will persist and that the objectives of the 6EAP will not be achieved by 2020, even with effective implementation of current legislation.

Table 1. The CAFE analysis and the strategy.

Note: Costs and benefits are given as annual amounts for the year 2020, and only costs and benefits of moving beyond the baseline scenario are included. Benefits to the natural environment and the cultural heritage have not been monetised. MTFR illustrates "maximal technical feasible reductions" and does not include structural abatement measures such as fuel switch or energy efficiency.

Emission reduction potential

In order to assess the emission reduction potential of applying currently available technical abatement measures, a so-called maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR) scenario was investigated. As indicated by the name, it does not include structural abatement measures such as fuel switching or energy efficiency improvements.

This scenario would result in a cut in SO2 emissions of 85 per cent, while those of NOx, VOCs and PM2.5 would all come down by between 60 and 70 per cent. Emissions of NH3 would be reduced by about 40 per cent (see Figure 1).

The MTFR scenario has been criticized for not properly accounting for all available opportunities to reduce emissions, which means that the actual emission reduction potential is actually underestimated.

Three policy scenarios

Following the production of the CLE and the MTFR scenarios, a number of scenarios were investigated, all set to achieve interim environmental targets with various levels of ambition. For practical reasons, the analysis was limited to the range of emission levels that exists between the CLE and the MTFR scenarios.

The three final policy scenarios were arrived at through a series of model iterations, and they can be said to reflect a lower (A), a medium (B), and a higher (C) overall level of ambition.

Besides providing country-by-country figures on the resulting emission levels of the five air pollutants (SO2, NOx, VOCs, NH3, and PM2.5), the analysis also includes estimates of the resulting health and environmental impacts in each member state, as well as estimates of the costs and benefits associated with the additional emission reductions (see Table 1).

For the EU as a whole, the additional annual costs range between six and 15 billion euro for the year 2020, equal to about 13-33 euro per person in 2020.

The estimated costs could be compared to monetised annual health benefits of the three policy scenarios, which were valued at 37-160 billion euro for the year 2020, equal to 83-359 euro per person.

Cleaner air brings huge benefits

Earlier benefit analyses have shown that improvements in health generate the largest quantified monetary benefits when air pollution is reduced. The health assessment addresses impact related to both long-term (chronic) and short-term (acute) exposures. It deals with both mortality (i.e. deaths) and morbidity (i.e. illness).

The morbidity effects that can be quantified include hospital admissions and the development of chronic respiratory disease, but also less serious effects, which are likely, however, to affect a greater number of people. These include changes in the frequency of use of medicine to control asthma, and days of restricted activity.

Concentrations of fine particles have a much more important effect than ozone with respect to mortality. Significant reductions in concentrations and impacts are expected over the period 2000 to 2020, especially regarding fine particles (see Table 1). The annual health benefits of implementing current legislation up to 2020 are valued at between 89 and 193 billion euro, for the year 2020. This translates to an estimated annual average benefit across the EU of 191-397 euro per person.

Moreover, two additional types of air pollution impact have been quantified in economic terms, namely the effects of ozone on crop yield and the damage to modern buildings. For the year 2000, this damage was valued at 2.8 and 1.1 billion euro, respectively.

Those effects of air pollution that were not quantified in monetary terms, and thus would ordinarily be omitted from a cost-benefit analysis, were covered by a so-called extended analysis. Some conclusions from the extended analysis were that:

• Inclusion of impacts on forests, freshwater and other ecosystems could add significantly to the quantified benefits;

• Inclusion of the effects of chronic exposure to ozone on health, social impacts of air pollution on health, altruistic effects and damage to cultural assets may be important, but there is currently inadequate evidence available to make a firm conclusion; and,

• Other effects are unlikely to make a substantial difference to quantified benefits at the European level, but may be significant in some areas.

The thematic strategy

Following the CAFE analysis of the various scenarios, the Commission adopted in September 2005 its thematic strategy on air pollution.

By establishing interim environmental objectives for 2020 in the strategy, the Commission sets the level of ambition regarding air quality in the EU up to 2020.

The interim objectives are shown in Table 1, which also shows the estimated costs and benefits of the strategy. When compared to the CAFE policy scenarios, the Commission's chosen level of ambition is between scenarios A and B. Although this means some improvements as compared to "business as usual", it is clear that significant damage from air pollution will remain in 2020. The emission reductions needed to achieve the strategy's interim objectives can be seen in Figure 1.

On top of the analysis of costs and benefits, the wider economic and social impacts were also investigated. The costs of meeting scenarios A, B and C were estimated at respectively 0.04, 0.08, and 0.12 per cent of EU GDP in 2020. The overall impact on employment was negligible, and EU competitiveness relative to other industrialised countries such as the USA and Japan would not be affected. It should be noted that the positive impacts of reduced mortality and better health were not taken into account in this analysis.

As regards specific legislative proposals, the strategy is accompanied by a proposal to merge the air quality framework directive and three so-called daughter directives containing minimum requirements for air quality. The proposed new directive aims to clarify and simplify provisions, and to modernise and streamline monitoring and reporting requirements. It also introduces new provisions for fine particles (PM2.5).

When it comes to emission reductions, there are no specific proposals for new or revised EU legislation presented together with the strategy. The Commission announces however that it will review the national emission ceilings (NEC) directive, and in late 2006 propose revised emission ceilings that will be based on the level of ambition set out in the strategy.

In addition, the strategy outlines a number of expected or possible actions at EU level, for example:

- Strengthened emission standards for new road vehicles;

- Revision of the directive on integrated pollution prevention and control (IPPC), including a possible expansion to cover small combustion plants;

- A possible new directive to reduce VOC emissions from petrol stations; and,

- Measures to reduce NOx emissions from shipping.

The Commission also makes clear that meeting air quality targets will require efforts in other policy areas, in particular the energy, transport and agriculture sectors, and for each of the sectors a number of possible actions are discussed.

It is foreseen that the strategy will be reviewed in 2010, and that the results will feed into the review of the 6EAP.

More information

Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament: thematic strategy on air pollution. COM(2005) 446 final.

Commission staff working paper: Impact assessment of the thematic strategy on air pollution and the directive on "Ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe". SEC(2005) 1133

Reports produced under the CAFE programme (scenario analysis, CBA, etc.).

All documents and reports are available from the website of the Commission's environment directorate.

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Published 22 November 2005.